$2 NLHE 6-max: QJs, Flopped Top pair + FD. ALL IN ON FLOP?

[Casey55]

BTN was 91/27/2.9 (56 hands)
SB was 46/25/0.9 (86 hands)

Player behind me was a super fish, extremely active, both players were playing very active but I could tell against me they were more cautious and folding more often to my bets. On the flop here I was not sure If I should raise or call. When SB bet out at me I suspected 2pair or better, I think he perceived me as a tight player I was winning often at the showdown and I think they seen I was playing good cards.. the point was that when he donked into me I suspected he had a good hand, I did not know if I wanted to raise or just call and let the fish behind me come along if he wanted but I also didnt want to just call, I figured we want to play a larger pot with this type of hand and if we didnt see a club on the turn that would kind of suck. My plan If I re-raised villain was to get it all in if he 3-bet the flop. What do you think would be the best course of action in a spot like this?

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $3.70 (185 bb)
MP: $3.27 (164 bb)
CO (Hero): $2.87 (144 bb)
BU: $2.11 (106 bb)
SB: $2.47 (124 bb)
BB: $2.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with J♣ Q♣
2 players fold, Hero raises to $0.06, BTN calls $0.06, SB calls $0.05, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.20) Q♦ 9♣ 7♣ (3 players)
SB bets $0.10, Hero raises to $0.26, BU folds, SB raises to $0.64, Hero ...?

 

[John A]

Two pretty major poker rules of thumb going on in this hand.

1) If you're multi-way on the flop with a hand that can build a big pot and has great equity, it's generally better to allow a player behind you to ride along for cheap and potentially trap multiple players.
2) If you're raised post flop, you generally want to keep your opponent's bluffs and semi-bluffs in and call, and not force them into making perfect decisions. In this specific situation it's somewhat close because there are some worse draws he might get in (although you block on major one in his range w/ Jx). 120 bbs+ it's close, but since you have position he'll likely keep betting and that would lean me towards a call rather than 4-bet.

 

[fundiver199]

The main reason, why we play draws aggressively, is to make better hands fold. So if you had a hand like JT of clubs, raising his donk bet on the flop would make a lot of sense. If BTN has a hand like A5 or 22-66, he is likely going to fold, and if you have J high, thats a great result. Here however you have top pair decent kicker, so you are never getting a better hand to fold, and you actually want BTN to call with worse, because then you are getting value.

Per definition that mean, the only reasons to raise are for value and equity denial. There is some merit to that, but you have the main draw covered, so even if someone draw out on you on the turn, you still have a redraw. And if someone improve on a club, thats a great situation for you, unless of course they have the A or K high flushdraw. So I prefer just calling here. He essentially made your C-bet for you, and lets just leave it with that.

Calling with QX of clubs also keep you better balanced. If you raise every single flushdraw on the flop, then you cant have a flush, when you just call, and it comes in later. This is not a big deal at 2NL, where most of your opponents are beginners, but its definitely something to consider, when you eventually move up to low or mid stakes. Which I am sure, you eventually will. So why not start taking the more "correct" balanced lines already now. Its not like, its significantly less EV in this particular situation even against fish.

When he 3-bet you, I think, he almost certainly has a better made hand than yours, and that you are drawing. I also dont think, he is ever going to fold to a 4-bet, which by the way should be a jam. So I would just call and look to make some decisions on later streets depending on the runout and his actions. There is only going to be around a potter left, so on a brick turn I am probably hating life and folding, if he sticks it in. Which by the way is another reason to not raise and reopen the betting for him.

With that being said I dont hate shipping it in here. You would be shipping 2,15$ more to win a final pot of exactly 5$. So even with no fold equity, its +EV, if you have more than 43% equity. And unless his range is only sets, which seem rather pessimistic, you probably have those 43%. You could occationally be against a hand like the nut flushdraw, which you actually beat, and even against two pair or a hand like AQ/KQ, you have some extra outs in top of the flush outs. So I am never folding here, and its only between calling or jamming.

 

[Casey55]

how do we determine if we should have made this play with QJs? do we base it off
ev calculations, or do we approach it with a required equity type equation?

If we shove out stack we are shoving 241 to win a total pot of 538 when he calls.
our Required equity here is 44%... so we need 44% equity to make this shove profitable?
or we should be thinking about it as an EV calculation and plug in what % villains folds
and calls with etc.?

If we assume he is never folding I am unsure which equation we use

I had put this villain on a range of 2-pair +, I was playing tight and showing down strong hands at the table and could tell this player was respecting me and getting out the of way when I bet , so when he donked here I assumed a strong range. In hindsight I think after everyone's advice I should have just called. If we shove over-top here do we ever look at is as -EV if we have under 50% equity? since we would be shoving our stack in as an underdog to sets/two pairs if thats the range we give him? or because there is dead money in the pot we can profitably shove?




thanks everyone for the replies, quality feedback as usual here.

 

[jaworek1405]

Hello, I think that in this situation you can go allin on the flop. We have to respect player on the small blind that range is usually more tight than range player on the big blind. I don't see here hand AQo on the small blind, because player with that hand should 3bet us pre flop, but it is nl2 and there are many passive player, so everything is possible. Board seems very good for our hand, I don't see too many hand that beat you. Only pocket 77 and pocket 99 beat us. So I think that sometimes we can risk with top pair and flush draw and we can go allin. GL