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Message: [QUOTE="GreenDaddy1, post: 6243526, member: 337531"] [b]Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF):[/b] 17/15/4 Jumping back into a bit of 2nl after a break. Villain 17/15/4, is particularly aggressive on the flop (AF:9) but had folded 5/6 flops vs C Bets. Looks positionally aware so some kind of, at least, semi decent TAG. He has a high 4 bet ratio (7) and folded 2 of 4 times to 3 Bet (a worthless sample size of both counts) and only 273 hands so dangerous to assume very much more. FLOP: I threw out a 33% ish C Bet, pretty standard for me currently after I've 3 Bet, which was raised. At the time I thought that was about a 50/50 as far my odds to call the raise to hit the flush. I discounted any outs involving pairing the A or K as I could easily pair one or the other and still be beat or chop. Anyway, I called. Alarm bells were going off however. When he makes this raise I'm leaning heavily towards him having a queen, QQ or AQ. Maybe KQ. 88 possible. Basically something pretty nuttish and I think I am almost always behind vs this move vs this player pool (888 SNAP at a pretty rotten reg infested time of the day). Given that... seeing as the odds were barely good enough, should I have just laid down if I am that sure I'm nearly always way behind here? I'd be surprised if AA or KK had not 4 bet pre. It could be an aggressive move with AK to get me to lay down, maybe. JJ/TT/99 surely not raising here. I dont really imagine other hands like QJ raising here either, unless perhaps QJ of spades. TURN: The K on the turn gives me TPTK but I am not massively thrilled. I do feel like it is going to be hard to get away now. I was probably calling any bet once the K hit, but as played villain's small bet again sees me just scraping a 50/50 on the odds to hit the flush. He has so little left behind compared to the size of the pot I just shove. Might be some deeper analysis required on what that actually achieves besides making sure I win the full amount when he calls and I hit. You could argue if he had AQ and folds when I shove over the top I'm actually losing money. Struggling to see a hand beating me that I fold out with that shove. Pretty sure I should have just taken my barely decent odds and called, and taken the river as it came. Anyway, have at it. [B]Pacific Poker - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players[/B] [I][URL="http://www.pokertracker.com"]Hand converted by PokerTracker 4[/URL][/I] BTN: 57.5 BB SB: 110.5 BB [B]Hero (BB): 153.5 BB[/B] UTG: 25.5 BB [B]MP: 100 BB[/B] CO: 67.5 BB SB posts SB 0.5 BB, [B]Hero[/B] posts BB 1 BB [B]Pre Flop:[/B] [I](pot: 1.5 BB)[/I] [B]Hero[/B] has K[COLOR=black]♠[/COLOR] A[COLOR=black]♠[/COLOR] UTG calls 1 BB, [COLOR=red][B]MP[/B] raises to 4 BB[/COLOR], [I]fold[/I], [I]fold[/I], [I]fold[/I], [COLOR=red][B]Hero[/B] raises to 14 BB[/COLOR], [I]fold[/I], [B]MP[/B] calls 10 BB [B]Flop:[/B] [I](29.5 BB, 2 players)[/I] 8[COLOR=black]♠[/COLOR] Q[COLOR=red]♥[/COLOR] 3[COLOR=black]♠[/COLOR] [COLOR=red][B]Hero[/B] bets 10.5 BB[/COLOR], [COLOR=red][B]MP[/B] raises to 32 BB[/COLOR], [B]Hero[/B] calls 21.5 BB [B]Turn:[/B] [I](93.5 BB, 2 players)[/I] K[COLOR=red]♦[/COLOR] [B]Hero[/B] checks, [COLOR=red][B]MP[/B] bets 27.5 BB[/COLOR], [COLOR=red][B]Hero[/B] raises to 106 BB[/COLOR], [B]MP[/B] calls 26.5 BB and is all-in [SPOILER] [B]River:[/B] [I](201.5 BB, 2 players)[/I] 5[COLOR=black]♠[/COLOR] [B]Hero[/B] shows K[COLOR=black]♠[/COLOR] A[COLOR=black]♠[/COLOR] (Flush, Ace High) (Pre 46%, Flop 26%, Turn 18%) [B]MP[/B] shows Q[COLOR=black]♠[/COLOR] Q[COLOR=black]♣[/COLOR] (Three of a Kind, Queens) (Pre 54%, Flop 74%, Turn 82%) [B]Hero[/B] wins 189 BB[/SPOILER] [/QUOTE]

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