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Message: [QUOTE="Casey55, post: 6143500, member: 418310"] PokerStars, [i][color=#1515FC]Hold'em No Limit[/color][/i] - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players [url=https://upswingpoker.com/convert]Hand delivered by Upswing Poker[/url] UTG: $1.72 (86 bb) MP: $1.30 (65 bb) CO: $2.89 (145 bb) BU (Hero): $4.61 (231 bb) SB: $2.26 (113 bb) BB: $1.58 (79 bb) [b]Pre-Flop:[/b] ($0.03) Hero is BTN with J[color=#0000FF]♦[/color] 7[color=#008000]♣[/color] [color=#666666][i]1 fold[/i][/color], MP calls $0.02, [color=#666666][i]1 fold[/i][/color], [b][color=#C51F1F]Hero raises to $0.08[/color][/b], [color=#666666][i]1 fold[/i][/color], BB calls $0.06, MP calls $0.06 [b]Flop:[/b] ($0.25) 6[color=#0000FF]♦[/color] 3[color=#FF0000]♥[/color] 4[color=#008000]♣[/color] [color=#009B00](3 players)[/color] BB checks, MP checks, [b][color=#C51F1F]Hero bets $0.07[/color][/b], BB calls $0.07, MP calls $0.07 [b]Turn:[/b] ($0.46) 2[color=#000000]♠[/color] [color=#009B00](3 players)[/color] BB checks, MP checks, [b]Hero checks[/b] [b]River:[/b] ($0.46) 4[color=#FF0000]♥[/color] [color=#009B00](3 players)[/color] [color=#C51F1F]BB bets $0.22[/color], [color=#666666][i]MP folds[/i][/color], [color=#666666][i]BU (Hero) folds[/i][/color] Would appreciate if someone could help walk me through what they think of the parts villain's range that is folding to the 1/3 pot bet. On the turn what parts of villains range now folds and what calls? I am experimenting with getting out of line and exploiting players. I am constantly watching and focusing on when they are folding, the lines they are taking when they fold and looking for patterns/ frequencies in their play. Here's my take , tell me what you think. Also what do we think about the LJ's limping range since he is first to act should his limping range be stronger than normal? what would be a strong limping range ? On the flop I think villains are probrably folding a-lot cards that completely miss like ,KT,QT,JT,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,98s, a bunch of hands that completely missed. (or do hands like KT call with the 2 overcards do you think?) I think what calls will be possibly a bunch of suited Ax. 54s,65s,76s,87s (gutshot+2-overs), - the weaker PP's that are not sets - I think the sets may be split between calling with some frequency and raising with some frequency. I didn't include many broadways in villains ranges because I assume they should open raise those from the start a majority of the time at least for sure the suited ones. Both players call the flop and a 2s comes. Both check to me again and I am putting them on mostly marginal made hands now since the board is drawy I would expect them to bet out some portion of the time with their best hands for value/protection. I checked on this turn and I think it was maybe a mistake. I am betting these flops IP all the time for 1/3 pot because unless they are loose/calling station type players if seems like it prints money because as a bluff it only needs to work a small portion of the time. Anyways.. On the turn I think I should have bet. If we bet 2/3 pot on the turn; risk/(risk+reward) 30/30+47= 38% Our bluff needs to work 38% of the time. Villain needs to fold at least 38% of his range correct? I believe I opted not to bet because the bluff would have to get through 2 players. Are hands like A8,A9,AT check folding to a 2/3 pot bet on the turn if they think theyre Ax outs may be good and/or the 5 to a straight is still there, or does that not play because if a 5 comes the board will be a straight correct? If A6-AT is folding including all suited and non suited variations that is a large amount of range, roughly 30% but then the question would be do they ever actually call flop with AT,A9,A8,A7? maybe its player dependant? Basically what I have as their checking turn range would be many Ax, a bunch of weaker PP's and some suited connectors that made a pair or have some sort of draw, when they are faced with a 2/3 pot bet I think most players would fold most of their Ax besides Ax with top or middle pair. They will probably stick around with PP's like 88,77. and I am also wondering if a hand like 87s folds here, the turn has not given them additional BDFD equity and they hold a gut-shot with two overs. [/QUOTE]

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