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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6146853, member: 397965"]
I dont think, he is leading for half pot with absolutely nothing. If he had a hand like KT or QJ, he would just check and fold. So the lead means, he connected with the board in some way. And with a board this low "connecting" means a lot of relatively weak pairs, that dont particularly love to see a turn out of position, with or without a gutshot. He can have A8, 75, the list is very long. He can also have a draw like T9, and he can occationally have two pair or better, but its not the bulk of his range.

At since he almost always have something at least decent, I would not be afraid, that he fold to a raise. Maybe the 25c, which I suggested, will get a few folds, but at least up to 20c, he is going to call nearly 100% of the time. So going to just 12c is simply leaving a ton of money on the table.

Where the lead becomes very strong is on the turn. Now he leads for almost full pot, and he does it, after you raised him on the previous street. This is a very nutted line, and given the board this will almost always be a straight. Yeah sure the guy could be going crazy with A4 of clubs or some other random bluff, but that will be the exception.
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