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[QUOTE="300HPGOD, post: 6325335, member: 305911"]
I agree with your thinking as well that villain very likely does not have QQ+.  They did donk lead on the flop which to me narrows it down a bit.  I am not sure a set always leads there even on wet boards as they will more likely look for a check raise instead of making a large bet that could easily fold everyone else out.  The donk lead to me is 1010, 99, 8x, and possibly some 7x.  I dont think the donk lead for that sizing is indicative of a flush draw.

When thinking that, the river then comes down to 8x or not and there is a much greater chance of a non 8x hand then them having the case 8.  I  disagree with you though that villain is not calling a lot off here.  One is (assuming we are the effective stack) we would be putting in another 4.50 on top of a pot that would be already be over $9 and villain most likely has a boat of some kind.  Most villains at low stakes (I assume this is betonline where 10NL is the smallest game they offer) will not fold boats easily.  I would think villain would call off even a boat with 2x of some kind here so I would jam it in after they make the $3 bet.  If they have the 8 then its bad luck in my opinion but there are plenty of hands that villain could call off here.  Not saying they should be calling but thinking of the typical villains at low stakes I dont think they are folding a boat when you make it 4.50 more on the river after what they already put in the middle.
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