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Message: [QUOTE="JackOscar, post: 5717486, member: 436520"] I go for a small range-bet on the flop since I think I should clearly have enough range advantage to justify it, he is likely to 4-bet KK+,AK so the king just hits my range much better. The turn I am not really sure about, maybe I should just have checked it back here already and go into bluff catching mode if he bets, and probably go for a small value bet on safe rivers. Getting check raised on the turn would suck obviously. When the 4th spade hits on the river I felt I had a pretty clear spot to bluff catch since I will never get value from weaker holding on this board. I don't have any stats on Villain except that his stack size is 150BB so that at least makes it a little more likely that he's a reg than a fish and is capable of bluffing on run outs like this. Would you always bluff catch here? Some maths below if anyone is interested in that type of analysis: There's a 45% chance of Villain not being dealt at least one spade pre-flop given that we don't have a spade ( 1 - (37/50*36/49) = 0.456) ), and since it's more likely than not that he would raise the turn with 2 spades to protect his equity in case I have AA,KK,AK and am drawing to a boat on the river (not sure if this is totally right so correct me if I'm wrong) we can maybe reduce that 45% down a bit. You're also more likely to play suited hands in the first place which should reduce the number of combinations with spades in them. We're getting 33%~ pot odds so we need the probability that he's bluffing to be at least 33% in order to make calling profitable.There's a 45% chance of Villain *not* being dealt at least one spade pre-flop given that we don't have a spade ( 1 - (37/50*36/49) = 0.456) ), and since it's more likely than not that he would raise the turn with 2 spades to protect his equity in case I have AA,KK,AK and am drawing to a boat on the river (not sure if this is totally right so correct me if I'm wrong) we can maybe reduce that 45% down a bit. You're also more likely to play suited hands in the first place which should reduce the number of combinations with spades in them. We're getting 33%~ pot odds so we need the probability that he's bluffing to be at least 33% in order to make calling profitable. So we need that: P( no spade | Villain bets) = 0.33 = P(No spade) * P(Villain bets | no spade) / (P(Spade) * P(Villain bets | no spade) + P(Villain bets | spade) * P(spade) ) If we assume that Villain always bets with a spade (so P(Villain bets | spade) = 1) we can solve for P(Villain bets | no spade) and we get P(Villain bets | no spade) =~ 0.6. So this call is profitable if villain bluffs more than 60% of the time that he doesn't have a spade here, would you say this is a reasonable assumption? We can probably reduce this number down a bit as well given the arguments above (then again villain is also more likely to not fold turn if he has a good spade so maybe not). If we also suppose villain doesn't bet river for value with some weaker spade holding like AxTs then we can reduce the number even more 888Poker Snap, [I][COLOR=#1515FC]Hold'em No Limit[/COLOR][/I] - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players [URL="https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/2a1N1WAd"]Replay this hand on CardsChat[/URL] [B][COLOR=#C4302B]Radu1229 (UTG): $15.46 (155 bb)[/COLOR][/B] Pavel_Invest (MP): $10.00 (100 bb) gasmeoutside (CO): $20.37 (204 bb) MxJbb23 (BU): $14.17 (142 bb) [B][COLOR=#C4302B]JackOscar95 (SB): $10.84 (108 bb)[/COLOR][/B] kwikacz123 (BB): $5.40 (54 bb) [B]Pre-Flop:[/B] ($0.15) Hero (JackOscar95) is SB with K[COLOR=#0000FF]♦[/COLOR] A[COLOR=#008000]♣[/COLOR] [COLOR=#C51F1F]Radu1229 (UTG) raises to $0.25[/COLOR], [COLOR=#666666][I]3 players fold[/I][/COLOR], [B][COLOR=#C51F1F]JackOscar95 (SB) 3-bets to $0.85[/COLOR][/B], [COLOR=#666666][I]1 fold[/I][/COLOR], Radu1229 (UTG) calls $0.60 [B]Flop:[/B] ($1.80) 3[COLOR=#0000FF]♦[/COLOR] K[COLOR=#000000]♠[/COLOR] 7[COLOR=#000000]♠[/COLOR] [COLOR=#009B00](2 players)[/COLOR] [B][COLOR=#C51F1F]JackOscar95 (SB) bets $0.65[/COLOR][/B], Radu1229 (UTG) calls $0.65 [B]Turn:[/B] ($3.10) A[COLOR=#000000]♠[/COLOR] [COLOR=#009B00](2 players)[/COLOR] [B][COLOR=#C51F1F]JackOscar95 (SB) bets $2.11[/COLOR][/B], Radu1229 (UTG) calls $2.11 [B]River:[/B] ($7.32) 2[COLOR=#000000]♠[/COLOR] [COLOR=#009B00](2 players)[/COLOR] [B]JackOscar95 (SB) checks[/B], [COLOR=#C51F1F]Radu1229 (UTG) bets $11.85 (all-in)[/COLOR], [B]JackOscar95 (SB) calls $7.23 (all-in)[/B] [B]Total pot:[/B] $21.78 (Rake: $1.08) [B]Showdown:[/B] Radu1229 (UTG) shows T[COLOR=#FF0000]♥[/COLOR] A[COLOR=#FF0000]♥[/COLOR] (a pair of Aces) [I](Equity - Pre-Flop: 31%, Flop: 2%, Turn: 0%, River: 0%)[/I] JackOscar95 (SB) shows K[COLOR=#0000FF]♦[/COLOR] A[COLOR=#008000]♣[/COLOR] (two pair, Aces and Kings) [I](Equity - Pre-Flop: 69%, Flop: 98%, Turn: 100%, River: 100%)[/I] JackOscar95 (SB) wins $20.70 [/QUOTE]

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