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Message: [QUOTE="300HPGOD, post: 6778708, member: 305911"] Pre: I think you can make this bet smaller as its a cold 3 with a limper involved so it has a little 4 bet feeling to it from opponents so I think it can smaller knowing the limper likely is not coming in unless they like to limp jam with big hands. You are in position with AK so we are not worried if HJ calls us and we are making this raise as a value raise instead of a bluff raise therefore I think a raise to 3.5x is better than 4.5x. Flop: Villain dependent on sizing and it sounds like you know this player so if you think they will float a lot or call off with 99 type hands then I like your sizing. If they dont have that tendency and most likely would fold anything other than 77, Jx or Kx then your sizing needs to be smaller. You would know the answer to those questions better than me so I will leave that for you to decide but this should not be a half pot bet everytime against every opponent as I am pretty sure you already know. I have played against you and trust your judgement so half pot was probably fine there. Turn: Comes down to again to villain and do we think we could get 3 streets from a hand worse than TPTK? With going with the defualt answer of no since I really dont know we have to check somewhere and depending on villains flop floats/call % Jx was one of our target hands that now we lose to. We already know Kx is less lilely since we can account for 2 of them so I think checking here makes sense given our value target range has shrunk considerably and this might not have been a triple barrel situation to begin with. River: I am not sure this is a slam dunk fold as others have said. Are we ever checking the turn if we have Jx? I wouldnt think so even though the board is badugi we would still try to get value so villain likely knows this as they have played against us just as much as we have played against them. Their bets on the river would never be half pot or less as if they are bluffing then they know they are behind and need folds and if they are ahead then with our 3 bet pre and bet on flop they know we likely have a little something and could call. I think the only bet sizing you would ever face on this river with this board would be what you faced. Its clearly polarized and you could be ahead and could be behind. AQ and 1010 fit here. I dont think QJ and J10 type hands call that large of a 3 bet pre but you again know them better than me. KJ is limited due to the board and us having a K so that to me leaves AJ as the only Jx that makes sense. Does 1010 call that flop with two overs after facing a large 3 bet pre? I doubt it so I diminish the chances of 1010 as well. This to me seems like AQ, AJ or a bluff. Without really knowing the villain I couldnt guess how much they are bluffing but that is the million dollar or $15 dollar question in this case. My gut tells me this is close to a call but probably more likely than not a better fold over time than a call. [/QUOTE]

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