Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="Ship Knapped, post: 7054745, member: 1043732"] Preflop Analysis Your hand: Pocket kings (𝐾♥𝐾♦K♥K♦) in the small blind is a premium holding. Action: Villain raises from the cutoff to $0.26. You correctly 3-bet to $0.93, aiming to build the pot and isolate a likely weaker player. The sizing seems good for live play—big enough to discourage speculative hands, small enough to get action from worse hands in a loose game. Villain type: As "Donky McDonkmeister," he will likely call 3-bets with a wide range of hands, including speculative hands like suited connectors and weak broadways. This is important for understanding postflop. Flop Analysis Board: 𝐽♠𝐴♠𝐾♣ J♠A♠K♣ Your equity: You flopped top set, which is an exceptionally strong hand on this board. However, it is a highly dynamic flop with straight and flush draw possibilities. Action: Your $1.30 bet into $1.96 is about two-thirds pot (non-rake adjusted), which is reasonable for value. Villain is unlikely to fold here, as his range includes hands like 𝐴𝑄,𝐴𝐽,𝑄♠𝑇♠,𝑇♠9♠,𝑄𝑇 AQ,AJ,Q♠T♠,T♠9♠,QT, and many other combinations that connect with this board. Turn Analysis Turn card: 𝑄♣Q♣ This is a problematic card. The board now reads 𝐽♠𝐴♠𝐾♣𝑄♣J♠A♠K♣Q♣, completing straights with 𝑇T and adding more flush draws.Your top set has dropped significantly in value because: Straights now dominate you. There are many two-pair combos that could shove. The opponent may have picked up additional equity with hands like 𝑄♣𝑇♣Q♣T♣ or 𝐾𝑄 KQ. Action: Your check gives Villain the opportunity to shove. Given his aggressive tendencies, this is fine if you plan to call some of the time. However, leading out again for protection might have been better against this player type. Decision Point: Villain's Shove Pot odds: You are calling $7.36 into a total pot of $11.92 (4.56+7.364.56+7.36). Pot odds: 7.36 11.92≈61.7% 11.9 27.36 ≈61.7%, meaning you need around 38.3% equity to make the call profitable. Villain’s range: Hands you beat: Two-pairs like 𝐴𝐽,𝐴𝑄,𝐾𝑄AJ,AQ, KQ. Combos of flush draws and straight draws (e.g., 𝑄♣𝑇♣,𝑇♠9♠Q♣T♣,T♠9♠). Bluffs with single-pair hands or random aggression. Hands that beat you: 𝑇♣9♣,𝑇♠9♠,𝑇♣8♣T♣9♣,T♠9♠,T♣8♣ (straights). Occasionally 𝑄𝑇 QT, if he plays loose enough to call preflop. Sets are unlikely because Villain would likely 4-bet 𝐴𝐴,𝐽𝐽 AA, JJ preflop, and you block 𝐾𝐾. Your equity vs. range: Assuming Villain’s range includes straights, two-pairs, and some bluffs: Top set’s equity against a mixed range: Around 40%-45% in most scenarios. Your call is mathematically justified because your equity against his range is slightly above the required threshold of 38.3%. Result and Context If Villain had a 𝑇 T, it's a cooler. If he was shoving weaker two-pairs or bluffing, your call was excellent. Key Takeaways Against Aggressive Players: It’s crucial to identify whether their aggression increases in specific spots (e.g., scare cards like the 𝑄♣Q♣). Exploitative Adjustments: If you know he overplays two pairs and weaker hands, calling is fine. Consider betting the turn to control the pot and discourage shoves. Avoid Results-Oriented Thinking: Regardless of the outcome, this call was not "boneheaded." Based on the information provided, you made a mathematically sound decision. [/QUOTE]

Verification

Search

Reply to thread

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site

Follow us

Language