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Message: [QUOTE="shwingzilla, post: 383049, member: 9429"] If he has ANY spade, you're behind. If he has any pair, you're behind. If he has an ace, you're behind. Assuming his play is completely random, he has a 38% chance of possessing a spade, A better than 32% chance of having a pair, and a 9% percent chance of having an ace. Your odds of being ahead, assuming completely random play: less than 38%. It'll cost you 3 dollars to see your outs, for a pot of 14.50. There's a 62% chance that you have 6 outs, a 34% chance you have 4 outs, and a 4% chance you have no outs. (ignoring two pair, trips, KK, QQ, AK, K6, KJ, K3 AQ, and AA; cuz this is already complicated enough). (.62 x 24) + (.34 x 16) + (.4 x 0) = 20.32% chance of catching your outs, contributing 21% of pot. Not worth it to see your outs (yes, yes, there's the runner runner straight, but that's only a 3% chance of hitting, and there's a 38% chance that it's 1.4% chance. So against a random hand it's a good call by a sliver. Not worth it.). As for paying all the way to the river, well that math is kinda complicated. Here's my shortcut: You're contributing 27% of the pot, here are the hands that are 63% or better to beat you: A-x (8% chance), Qs-x suited or otherwise, Ks-x suited or otherwise, any pair (better than 32% chance), J-x (6% chance), 6-x (6% chance), 3-x (6% chance), and any two spades. So against a completely random hand it's a bad call. (less than 50% chance of being a good call) Ok, I have no idea why I spent so much time analysing this. But it confirms my suspicion: fold. Anyone wanna check my math? :D At least I learned something from this: if the river is suited, and you don't possess that suit or a pair, you need to get out of dodge, no matter how bad your opponent is. [/QUOTE]

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