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Message: [QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6894730, member: 397965"] There is a lot of talk about variance in MTTs, but I think, people still underestimate, how large it can actually be. And I want to illustrate this with an example of my own recent numbers. After a lackluster 2023 I ended the year on a massive heater in december 2023 getting my second biggest cash ever and several medium large cashes as well. No need to compute the exact numbers, but anyone interested can check for themselfes on Sharkscope and see, it was a pretty big upswing. Then however the good times ended abrubtly, and when I recently calculated my results for 2024, it turned out, I have now played a little over 300 MTTs with a total ROI of around -35%. Which basically mean, I am down around 110 times my average buyin. Now this is for MTTs specifically, and I have also played SnGs, where I have had a bit of a heater. So my total loss for 2024 is less than, what I lost in the MTTs. However I still think, it goes to show, that its not for fun, when its often recommended to never buy into an MTT for more than 1% of your bankroll. A 100+ buyin downswing can happen in very little time, and its not even that uncommon. And therefore I also highly recommend to play a span of buyins, if you use the 1% rule, so that your average buyin is for less than 1% of your bankroll. And equally important dont get dilusional, when you have been on a heater. Its natural in that situation to feel like superman and want to play much higher stakes. But as my example show, you can go directly from a huge heater to a big downswing, and if you have moved up to much and refuse to move down again, then things can get very ugly very quickly. [/QUOTE]

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