ICM or Intuition?

Kaji Hokori

Kaji Hokori

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Are you always calculating the ICM mid-game and play according to that? Or are you just playing freely from any calculations besides outs?

I just read something about ICM and GTO and it's a little bit too theoretical for me, but maybe because I didn't used it in games yet. So, is it worth to calculate the ICM or is it just enough to "count" the outs?
 
MK_

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Well it's generally something to consider as the bubble and payouts approach later in the tournament, on the final table etc.,

it' s about being aware of the risks versus rewards in payouts, ...so it's about what is your stack worth in terms of winning money,

where the payouts start, where the pay jumps are... making the best decisions with your stack to get the best payout, gl😎👍
 
Newzooozooo

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Kaji Hokori said:
Are you always calculating the ICM mid-game and play according to that? Or are you just playing freely from any calculations besides outs?

I just read something about ICM and GTO and it's a little bit too theoretical for me, but maybe because I didn't used it in games yet. So, is it worth to calculate the ICM or is it just enough to "count" the outs?
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I don't calculate anything at all. I play solely based on my intuition, which in turn is based on my skills and experience :)
 
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The ICM is the silver value of the number of chips you have. It only counts in the final table that, before it doesn't make sense
 
renisundernet

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I choose intuition over ICM, but not that I'm lazy, it's just that ICM should be used with a certain mindset which prioritizes, in my case, intuition and higher variance...perhaps some spots require only intuition because they're much simpler imo.
 
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When playing at low limits, it's probably enough to simply calculate the outs and play for fun, sometimes trusting your intuition. However, as the limits increase, you need to take the game more seriously, use software calculations, and avoid getting carried away by your emotions.
 
aldoushach

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Interesting discussion. I think developing ICM intuition is a key skill that separates good tournament players from great ones. While solvers and tools are fantastic for study, at the table, it often comes down to a feel for the risk premium and stack dynamics. It's a constant balance between deep study and trusting your gut
 
hardongear

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I use both. ICM only really matters at the final table even then I have at times I've over ruled ICM but doing that strongly depends on the villain and my read on villain.

Cheers!!!
 
Poker Orifice

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Spoken like the true donks you are.
 
roberto51

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The optimal situation is the ability to combine both approaches during the game. In my case, I think it breaks down like this: 70% ICM - 30% Intuition. It's also worth adding that luck plays a significant role in poker. I don't think it can be expressed in percentage terms.
 
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So and so , also sometimes I look if I have some notes on opponents
 
fernandofcp

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ICM and intuition should be used as decision-making tools, but never isolated from the context of each hand. They should be used as complements and never as ends in themselves. It all depends on the moment and context of the tournament or match in progress: whether to use ICM or intuition, or both simultaneously, or neither.
 
amonlima

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ICM is only considered in bubble situations and pay jumps, where there are smaller stacks than you. In the middle of a tournament, the calculation is done by chip ev
 
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ICM means Independant Chip Model and is basically a way to quantify, that chips won are less valuable than chips lost. So its a concept rather than something, you sit and calculate in the middle of a hand like for instance pot odds or the equity of a draw. But you need to know, when risk aversion (ICM) should affect your decisions and those of your opponents, and when not so much.

If the tournament pay 1 in 5 entries, and you still only have 1-2 times the starting stack, then you need to chip up to have any real chance of cashing, so you should take calculated risks and basically play, as if it was a cash game. But if you already have a large stack, and the tournament is near the bubble, then you dont want to lose it all and allow players with much shorter stacks to cash at your expense.

And on the final table you also dont want to bust out with a 30BB stack, if 3 other players are sitting on 6BB, 9BB and 12BB respectively. Its pretty much common sense really or even "intuition", if you want to call it that. If you look down on a marginal hand like QJo, and the chip leader is in the big blind, then you just fold and let the guys with short stacks risk their chips first.
 
Mig32

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Kaji Hokori said:
Are you always calculating the ICM mid-game and play according to that? Or are you just playing freely from any calculations besides outs?

I just read something about ICM and GTO and it's a little bit too theoretical for me, but maybe because I didn't used it in games yet. So, is it worth to calculate the ICM or is it just enough to "count" the outs?
Click to expand...
Honestly, I don’t calculate ICM during the early or mid-stages of most tournaments — I usually focus more on pot odds, position, stack sizes, and reading opponents. ICM becomes truly important near the bubble or at final tables, where each decision can affect your actual payout.

I used to think ICM and GTO were too theoretical too, but once I started studying it a bit more, I realized that ICM helps avoid costly mistakes in key spots — like calling all-ins when laddering up is more valuable than doubling up.

So for me, the balance is:

- Early/Mid-game: play solid poker, count outs, and be aggressive when needed.

- Near bubble/final table: switch gears and consider ICM pressure — survival and pay jumps start to matter more than chip EV.

And no need to do all the math in your head. You can train ICM spots with tools or study them post-game to improve your instincts. That’s what I try to do!
 
Ruslan L

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I make decisions based solely on my skills and experience. Intuition is not something you can rely on in a game like this if you are focused on long-term goals. Poker does not require complex mathematical calculations, so it is not difficult to assess the odds in each specific situation.
 
sandy358

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Kaji Hokori said:
Are you always calculating the ICM mid-game and play according to that? Or are you just playing freely from any calculations besides outs?

I just read something about ICM and GTO and it's a little bit too theoretical for me, but maybe because I didn't used it in games yet. So, is it worth to calculate the ICM or is it just enough to "count" the outs?
Click to expand...
ICM is ridiculously hard to calculate, especially for big tourneys, so to get a grasp on it you have to go through a lot of spots with an ICM calculator to get a good intuitive understanding of it.
 
Last edited:
sandy358

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Rmi said:
It only counts in the final table that, before it doesn't make sense
Click to expand...
hardongear said:
ICM only really matters at the final table
Click to expand...
IDK what the source of this misinformation is, it's not the first time that I hear that. ICM mostly matters at the final table, the bubble and at the payout jumps. It exists even relatively far from the these spots, but it doesn't affect your actions as much there, so using ChipEV instead of microICM will not be that big of a mistake.
 
hardongear

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sandy358 said:
IDK what the source of this misinformation is, it's not the first time that I hear that. ICM mostly matters at the final table, the bubble and at the payout jumps. It exists even relatively far from the these spots, but it doesn't affect your actions as much there, so using ChipEV instead of microICM will not be that big of a mistake.
Click to expand...

20+ years of being a winning player and what works for me. I play mainly online, I play to final table, not min cash. Also my style is pretty much 15 years old and still works just fine. While most are min raising and letting their clock fully count down, I'm raising big, shoving/re-shoving(depending on stack size, cards and position stealing every chip I can. That's how I run deep and make the final table and then hopefully win.

There's more then one way to poker and win.

Cheers!!!
 
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sandy358 said:
No sé cuál es la fuente de esta desinformación, no es la primera vez que lo oigo. El ICM importa sobre todo en la mesa final, la burbuja y los saltos de premios. Existe incluso relativamente lejos de estos puntos, pero no afecta tanto a tus acciones allí, así que usar ChipEV en lugar de microICM no será un gran error.
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I've been playing MDA for more than 5 years. And the study led me to that analysis, and it's very profitable for me. It's good that you think differently, but we'll see it on the tables. salutes
 
Hospedar

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I don't think is actually possible for a player to keep calculating what to do at ICM important spots during the session...

You need to use your intuition based on the skills you got by your studies, otherwise you would never have enough time to take a correct decision and would, also, destroy your mindset and mental sanity during during every session...
 
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