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[QUOTE="Nileator, post: 5995384, member: 461825"]
The opportunity arose for me the other day to take a coin flip early in a freeroll tournament. The question dawned on me that there is clearly a tipping point where this no longer becomes the optimal decision but I'm unsure of where this line stands.

As for my thoughts thusfar:

1) In a high buy-in tournament on initial consideration, it seems this idea is far less favorable.
2) As for freerolls, the benefit of doubling up in the first few levels all but guarantees your ticket at least as far as the bubble (somewhat depending on the schedule). But it also allows you to control the table with the chip lead and make maintaining your stack easier.
3) Thus at some point, there must be a time in the tournament after the starting levels and the bubble where the risks of a double up coin flip does not outweigh the benefits of doubling up. ie. going for a flip with one player left to bust the bubble and not being under pressure to steal blinds to survive.
4) Account has to be taken that the opponent ranges will also vary depending on the time of the tournament as well. And thus swings the odds quickly if you can eliminate or leave weak hands in their range.

For a scenario perhaps consider the hero contains 10s/Js on the BB and the villain in the Deal position limped. Hero responds with 2.5 BB raise and villain has shoved to respond ideally with a range only hands containing Js or better. The most likely outcome is a pocket pair vs. 2 overs and we have our coinflip scenario.

How should I go about playing this?
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