$ NL HE MTT: River decision in deep stack stage?

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 - 9 players

UTG: 2,810 (94 bb)
UTG+1: 4,109 (137 bb)
MP: 2,500 (83 bb)
MP+1: 3,000 (100 bb)
LP: 2,940 (98 bb)
CO: 2,650 (88 bb)
BU (Hero): 3,055 (102 bb)
SB: 2,916 (97 bb)
BB: 3,000 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: (45) Hero is BTN with 5♥ K♥
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to 66, 4 players fold, Hero calls 66, 2 players fold

Flop: (177 (5.90BB)) 2♥ 3♦ 5♠ (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 120 (4BB), UTG+1 calls 120

Turn: (417 (13.90BB)) K♠ (2 players)
UTG+1 bets 313 (10.43BB), Hero raises to 735 (24.50BB), UTG+1 calls 422

River: (1,887 (62.90BB)) 3♥ (2 players)
UTG+1 bets 1,415 (47.17BB), BU (Hero)??

Edit.
Sorry, I forgot to add important info :
Villain stats are 14/10/5, cbet 57, over 410 hands.

Preflop
This is a very loose call, and I would just fold.

Flop
I would also bet when checked to. Even though you have top pair, your hand needs a lot of protection, and you dont want to give a free card to any two random overcards. Or for that matter the AX gutshot draw.

Turn
Great card and action. It looks like, he probably has a hand like AK or KQ and think, he is ahead now. Totally onboard with raising for value with top two.

River
Him leading out again is pretty weird. He is essentially saying, the second 3 helped him. But how can he possibly have a 3 here? Preflop and flop makes sense with A3 and in particular A3s, but leading turn with A3 makes no sense. 53 and 32 would be a very loose open from UTG+1, and I also dont think, he check-call the flop, if he flopped two pair or better. Or for that matter if he has AA, which you now also lose to. So the only hand, which makes just a minimum of sense here, is K3s, which is also a very loose open from UTG+1, and there is only one combo available.

So even though his line is very strong, and he is betting half a starting stack, I am definitely not folding here. If he can somehow beat top two, then he is getting my chips. I am not sure, there is much point in raising either though. For that to be a profitable play he would need to still have hands like AK or KQ in his range, which play like this. Which I guess is possible, but what I expect most to see here is some kind of busted draw or random bluff. So for me I just call here and take a note on, what the heck he has, that he decided to play in this weird way.

fundiver199 said:

Preflop
This is a very loose call, and I would just fold.

Flop
I would also bet when checked to. Even though you have top pair, your hand needs a lot of protection, and you dont want to give a free card to any two random overcards. Or for that matter the AX gutshot draw.

Turn
Great card and action. It looks like, he probably has a hand like AK or KQ and think, he is ahead now. Totally onboard with raising for value with top two.

River
Him leading out again is pretty weird. He is essentially saying, the second 3 helped him. But how can he possibly have a 3 here? Preflop and flop makes sense with A3 and in particular A3s, but leading turn with A3 makes no sense. 53 and 32 would be a very loose open from UTG+1, and I also dont think, he check-call the flop, if he flopped two pair or better. Or for that matter if he has AA, which you now also lose to. So the only hand, which makes just a minimum of sense here, is K3s, which is also a very loose open from UTG+1, and there is only one combo available.

So I am definitely not folding here, and if he somehow has me beat, he will need to show it to me. I am not sure, there is much point in raising either though. For that to be a profitable play he would need to still have hands like AK or KQ in his range, which play like this. Which I guess is possible, but what I expect most to see here is some kind of busted draw or random bluff. So for me I just call here and take a note on, what the heck he has, that he played in this weird way.

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Yeah, preflop was a bad call. I was late at the table, and got a bit distracted with stuff and mindlessly called, so I was wondering after the hand, how the hell I ended up in such spot in the first place

Don't you think he could have sets on flop there which were lucky to turn into a FH?

Sorry, I was apparently distracted here too , that's why I forgot to add a very important detail - villain's stats.
Villain stats are 14/10/5, cbet 57, over 410 hands.

Would your analysis change with the knowledge of his stats?

iwont20 said:

Would your analysis change with the knowledge of his stats?

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Actually yes. This player is a nit, and nits rarely bluff. But they also dont open many hands with low cards from UTG+1. So there is pretty much no chance, he has hands like A3, K3, 53 or 32. I guess, he could have a flopped set, but nits dont always open small pairs from UGT+1 either. And I dont really see, why he would check-call a set on the flop and then lead turn on a disconnected high card. I think, its more likely, that a set either C-bet or check-raise the flop.

What he can have though is KK. On the flop he pot control by check-calling. This makes much more sense with KK than with a set. Then he lead turn, because he improve to top set and just call your raise, because he potentially lose to a straight. And then finally he lead again on the river, because he improve to top boat. But if you only lose to boats, and if we also think, he might not always open 22 or 33 from UTG+1, then you have the absolute perfect hand to call with, since you block both 55 and KK. So its one of those, where I would not be loving the situation, but I would also not be folding.

iwont20 said:

Yeah, preflop was a bad call. I was late at the table, and got a bit distracted with stuff and mindlessly called, so I was wondering after the hand, how the hell I ended up in such spot in the first place

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If you called and lost to a boat, then the hand is a good example of, what Blackrain79 calls the snowball effect. The loose call preflop in itself only loses you a few chips. But it often results in a situation like this, where a small snowball at the top of the hill (preflop) grows into a big ugly pile of snow at the foot of the hill (river), as bets get progressively larger.

fundiver199 said:

Actually yes. This player is a nit, and nits rarely bluff. But they also dont open hands with low cards from UTG+1. So there is pretty much no chance, he flopped a set, two pair or a straight. And he also cant have K3 or A3. What he can have though is KK. On the flop he pot control by check-calling. Then he lead turn, when he improve to top set and just call your raise, because he potentially lose to a straight. And then finally he lead again on the river, when he improve to top boat. But if his main hand for value is KK, then its better to call with K5 than with 55 or 22 due to blockers. So if you called and lost to KK, then chuck it up to a cooler and register for the next freeroll

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But what is the default hero's decision, is it a call or a fold, given this action and his stats? We're blocking KK, so it's a call, since he doesn't have 22 55 A4 normally? But then again, he doesn't really bluff

iwont20 said:

But what is the default hero's decision, is it a call or a fold, given this action and his stats? We're blocking KK, so it's a call, since he doesn't have 22 55 A4 normally? But then again, he doesn't really bluff

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When we only lose to a few combos and even block the most likely of them, we need to call even against a nit. Maybe once in a blue moon he does actually bluff, or he overplay AK, or whatever. Even if we give him all the sets, its still only 6 combos. Another way to look at the situation is, what would you have done, if he had checked to you? And I assume, the answer is, you would have bet for value. And whenever that is the case, we should typically not look to fold, just because the opponent decide to lead into us.

fundiver199 said:

If you called and lost to a boat, then the hand is a good example of, what Blackrain79 calls the snowball effect. The loose call preflop in itself only loses you a few chips. But it often results in a situation like this, where a small snowball at the top of the hill (preflop) grows into a big ugly pile of snow at the foot of the hill (river), as bets get progressively larger.

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I know right? You slip at one street and, before you know it, you're in for a wild ride 🤪 Obviously, it's a problem created by my own hands, which should be a lesson (one of too many ).

Another thing to consider is, that knowing the nitty stats of this player, then maybe you dont actually want to raise the turn. Sure he could have AK and play it like this, and AK will not fold to a small turn raise. But what then is the plan for a blank river? You left yourself with a little more than a pot sized bet, so you could jam the river. But if you do that, a nit is not going to call you with anything, which your two pair beat. So you would have to go pretty small on the river, and then you are in a terrible spot, if he check-jam on you. And for those reasons it might be better to just call his turn bet rather than raise and then look to either call again on most rivers or bet, if he check to you.

fundiver199 said:

When we only lose to a few combos and even block the most likely of them, we need to call even against a nit. Maybe once in a blue moon he does actually bluff, or he overplay AK, or whatever. Even if we give him all the sets, its still only 6 combos. Another way to look at the situation is, what would you have done, if he had checked to you? And I assume, the answer is, you would have bet for value. And whenever that is the case, we should typically not look to fold, just because the opponent decide to lead into us.

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Great analysis, as always, @fundiver199!
I won't languish you any longer and publish the results:

OMG and he even showed you the bluff

fundiver199 said:

OMG and he even showed you the bluff

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Yes, and I ended up with double WTH: 1 - what just happened, I was so sure I made a right fold, and 2 - how I ended up here with K5

Thanks for your brilliant break down! As it turned out I was so sure in vain

Great analysis by Fundiver
This hand represents how a weak nit thinks other players think- They were not thinking about ranges only that if they bet big they could get folds because they would fold in that spot--

One further point about a nit on the turn if they turned KKK they are going for stacks on the turn often to protect against that dreaded river straight suckout- so we are blocking it and they are not protecting it by 3 betting turn so another reason to lean towards call river.

I think, this is a great hand to post for analysis. And for me the main point to take away is, that when the story makes no sense, we should lean strongly towards calling with our bluff catchers