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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
$ NL HE MTT: Call or Fold?
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6538974, member: 397965"] The hand is completely standard. As Andyreas say, you are committed on the flop against BTN, when you flop the nut flushdraw. That would even be the case, if you had checked, and he had moved all-in for his last chips. You most likely have 12 outs, which is almost 50% equity, and sometimes you are even ahead of a worse draw like KQ, QT, T8 or worse spades. Here its a nobrainer even just because of pot odds, but for other situations, where it might be closer, the free program Equilab is great for analysing spots like this. You plug in your hand and the board, and then you assign the opponent a range, that you think, he would call with pre and then commit with on the flop. Now first of all the opponent should never be calling here preflop with 11BB. He should either jam or fold, so we know already, he is not a good player. And for that reason I will assign him a fairly wide range. Starting with the nutted stuff, I do think, he most likely jam JJ+. So I will not give him overpair or top set, but I will give him 99 and 33 for the other sets. I think, he can have J9 for two pair but not J3 or 93. Thats just to loose even for most freeroll players. If he can have J9, he can clearly also have JT, QJ, KJ and AJ, and flopping top pair, those hands are clearly not going anywhere. I also dont think, he even just call, when the board is wet, and you bet 1/3 of his remaining chips, and he has another guy left to act behind him. So all the top pair are also in his jamming range, and lets give him A9 as well for the best second pair hand. And then there are draws. If he can have J9, he can also have QT and T8. Its kind of difficult for him to have spades, when you have the A, and the J and 9 are on the table. But KQ, KT and 87 of it seems reasonable, so lets give him that as well. The result is, you have 46% equity, so you are essentially flipping. Now you might disagree with the range, I gave him, but small adjustments will not change the result significantly. And if you assign him a range of say only sets and two pair, that is simply not realistic given the whole situation, where he is short and playing a freeroll. And even then you would have 30% equity, so it would still be a call. [/QUOTE]
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