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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
$5 NL HE MTT: 99
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 7137098, member: 397965"] I dont think, half pot is a "weak" bet online, but its not strong either. Its just sort of middle of the road, and for a flop bet actually a little above average, since most players have jumped on the modern "downbetting" trend, which comes from solvers. But I do get your point, that its not strong and screaming "give me max value" as one might imagine the thought process of the classic donk (bad player) hitting the flop hard and not understanding the best way to get paid. Fair point, and obviously two hands can never be a representative sample. In the AA hand its not really about "making the right call" though, since I beat the most common value, which is top pair. But I would probably not have picked it, if he had top pair, because then it would just be a standard "overpair stack top pair" hand, which is not very interesting. Returning to the 99 hand shared here, my feeling when he donk for this large sizing is definitely, that there is a decent chance, this is top pair. So in real time it would be a spot, where I would reluctantly call, but I would not love it. Whats interesting for me about this hand is, that he jam the turn, even though its a K, because for me that does not look like something, hands like QJ or QT would do, when they are now downgraded to second pair. So either he was bluffing a decent amount of the flop with K high hands, that now got there, and if he is able to do that, then maybe he is also able to fire the second barrel on a scare card with his A high or other air. Or his value range is now only two pair and sets, which mean, he dont need to have all that many bluffs for us to make a profitable call. But of course its kind of a theoretic discussion, since OP folded, so there is no reveal. [/QUOTE]
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$5 NL HE MTT: 99
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