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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
$5.50 NL HE MTT: PKO Winter Series
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6550815, member: 397965"] [B]Preflop[/B] Standard raise of course, and I like your sizing, because you are +100BB deep. [B]Flop[/B] Standard C-bet, but like in some other hands, you shared, you are using a very large sizing. This is kind of old school and not in line with, what solvers and other modern software has told us to be the best strategy. There are flops, where a large size is GTO, but those are typically wet connected flops and certainly not a paired flop. Our goal here is not to play for stacks with just an overpair, when the SPR is around 20. So you dont need to go so big to build the pot, and a smaller sizing put more of his hands is a tough spot. If he has a hand like AJ of diamonds, he can easily just fold, when you bet so much. Whereas if you go smaller, he kind of have to peal at least one street. And if he dont, then you print money, when you are C-betting with nothing. [B]Turn[/B] All the draws missed, so I think, its fine to go for another street of value, and I am not going to say to much about half pot. As I understand it, solvers almost never use that size, but it cant be that bad in this particular situation. Now though he raise, and this is definitely not ideal. This is a classic Beluga theorem spot, since you are cash game deep. The Beluga theorem state: [B]"You should strongly re-evaluate the strenght of one-pair hands in the face of a raise on the turn"[/B] Technically you do have two pair here, but its kind of the same thing, since we are talking about a paired board. The point here is, the opponent is usually not raising a hand worse than yours for value, and its questionable, how often draws are taken for this line on a paired board. So even though draws are available, I tend to discount them quite a bit. If he has a hand like QJ of hearts or 76s, does he really want to reopen the betting and risk getting 3-bet in a situation, where stacks are very deep, and he could already be drawing dead? Probably not. So I think, you are most likely behind and drawing to two outs here. Even so I would also call, because you are getting 4:1, and this is a low buyin, where some players will sometimes overplay their hand. Maybe he has T8 and dont understand, that the paired board significantly reduce the value of top two, since he still lose to trips and any overpair. Or maybe he has TX of hearts and raise it, because he is confused about, what to do with top pair + a draw. Or once in a moon he was slowplaying JJ or QQ and now he think, he is "springing the trap". [B]River[/B] Now he is betting almost full pot, and of course you also no longer has any chance to improve. All the draws missed, but even so I would not make this call for the reasons, I already gave in my turn analysis. When he bomb the river like this, I think, a draw is even less likely, and the overplayed stuff is also much less likely now. If you call here, he will show you a boat or at least trips the vast majority of the time. This is the kind of laydown, we need to be able to make in cash games and also early in a deep stacked MTT like this. [/QUOTE]
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$5.50 NL HE MTT: PKO Winter Series
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