$5.50 NL HE MTT: 88 in a multy-way pot

We are at the beginning of the tournament (played only 23 hands ), so there is still a lot to play. The bounty is min. on every player ( $ 1.25 ), multy way I do have some problems playing


How would you play this hand? Do you call the preflop Squeez? Would you check back the flop?




GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 150/300 (45 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat

UTG: 52,705 (176 bb)
UTG+1: 29,890 (100 bb)
MP: 19,050 (64 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): 25,157 (84 bb)
CO: 20,074 (67 bb)
BU: 25,041 (83 bb)
SB: 33,345 (111 bb)
BB: 24,910 (83 bb)

Pre-Flop: (810) Hero is MP+1 with 8♠ 8♣
2 players fold, MP raises to 600, Hero calls 600, CO calls 600, 1 fold, SB calls 450, BB 3-bets to 3,150, 1 fold, Hero calls 2,550, 2 players fold

Flop: (8,460) J♠ 3♥ 6♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 2,623, BB raises to 6,900, Hero calls 4,277

Turn: (22,260) 8♥ (2 players)
BB bets 2,700, Hero ?

Preflop
Folding here would be very tight, but you could 3-bet instead of waiting for someone else to do it. As played if you call here to setmine, you are only getting 10:1 in implied odds, and you are not closing the action. A BB 3-bet is typically also much stronger than a SB 3-bet, because its so cheap for BB to just stick in a call and see a flop. So I think, I just fold here, but I am not sure, what a solver would do. Probably pretty close.

Flop
When he check to you, I would also make a small bet for value/protection. Now he check-raise small, and this is a pretty bizarre line. Stacks are so shallow here, that if he want to go play for stacks, he can just go bet, bet, jam. There is no need for him to ever play this flop as a check-raise, so this seems like a little bit of FPS (Fancy Play Symdrom) making me think, that perhaps this is not the best player in the world. This does not mean, you can not be behind, but you are getting almost 5:1, so I would also stick in a call and see, what he does on the turn.

Turn
You binked a set, and the flushdraw also completed. Now he bet really small sort of a block bet or teaser. This is also strange, but you have a very strong hand now and less than a pot sized bet left. So I dont think, there is any other play here than to jam. It would be really stange for him to play a flushdraw this way on the flop, and if he has top set, then good for him. Its far more likely, he has an overpair or maybe top pair, and you beat all those hands now.

Preflop:
This is online poker which means you have stats. Use them. If MP opens wide, 3-bet.

After you get 3-bet, again use stats; if this is a tight range you can fold. Although calling is okay.

Flop:
Would not lead this; take the free card and then make a decision based on his bet sizing on the Turn and River. As played -- we're against a 3bet range that check-raised us on a flop with an overcard. I'm folding.

Turn:
Looks like a pretty easy all-in to me.

kdmeteor said:

Preflop:
This is online poker which means you have stats. Use them. If MP opens wide, 3-bet.

After you get 3-bet, again use stats; if this is a tight range you can fold. Although calling is okay.

Click to expand...

20% VPIP I do not think is a wide open from MP, If he had around 35-50% then I think is wide.

Also the BB is his 2nd hand since he just late reg...he is starting with a 25 000 chips stack....so again here there are no stats.

kdmeteor said:

Preflop:
This is online poker which means you have stats. Use them. If MP opens wide, 3-bet.

After you get 3-bet, again use stats; if this is a tight range you can fold. Although calling is okay.

Flop:
Would not lead this; take the free card and then make a decision based on his bet sizing on the Turn and River. As played -- we're against a 3bet range that check-raised us on a flop with an overcard. I'm folding.

Turn:
Looks like a pretty easy all-in to me.

Click to expand...

The stats on GG Poker are mostly without real worth,
sample size is way too small to give any worthy hints.
You always get session stats, the statitical worth is nearly 0.
If you have a 90% Vpip fish on about 50 hands that a tiny bit of info but not very much.
Only worth is the notes function there.

Goggelheimer said:

The stats on GG Poker are mostly without real worth,
sample size is way too small to give any worthy hints.
You always get session stats, the statitical worth is nearly 0.
If you have a 90% Vpip fish on about 50 hands that a tiny bit of info but not very much.
Only worth is the notes function there.

Click to expand...

If you want to have serious notes import the hands in a tracker, review the spots where you had any trouble.
Make notes on these spots/players.
Even if these hands are anonymized, you can take a screenshot of your replayer (the one from the tracker), save it to a special poker picture folder.
Then go to Pokercraft (tool from GG Poker) find the hand (you can search for starting hands there) in the tournament
you will find it there.
Now you can make a note on the not anonymized player.
You have to close the tracker before opening GG Poker.
Only use screenshots (pictures) of your replayer and do not open a poker table this should not break the TOS of GG Poker.

If you don't have a tracker, mark the hand directly in the GG hand history tool at the table.
Then do your work only in Pokercraft after your session.

The tracker has then the option also to give you further stats on special players if you meet them again and again,
perhaps if you play in a fixed pool like one stake (lets say you play only $1 Spins) in the spins section, there are a lot of regs that can be marked and reviewed by this method.

Goggelheimer said:

You always get session stats, the statitical worth is nearly 0.

Click to expand...

Well, accumulate them over several sessions. (This is what I did; is this such a rare idea?) You write a note including their session stats, and if you have a note from previous sessions, then you combine them with current stats into new stat that combines both sessions. You have to weigh by the # of hands (e.g., if one session has VPIP 15 with 100 hands and the other 21 with 200 hands, this should give VPIP 19 with 300 hands) but like, it's just multiplication and addition.

Goggelheimer said:

sample size is way too small to give any worthy hints.

Click to expand...

It's a common myth that you always need a large sample size to draw inferences. This is only true if the points are all generated by a very similar distribution. If that's not the case and the distribution is wildly different, you can get valuable information with very few data points. 200 are often enough. The 90% VPIP is a good example; this is a ton of information that you should take seriously, not "a tiny bit".

kdmeteor said:

Well, accumulate them over several sessions. (This is what I did; is this such a rare idea?) You write a note including their session stats, and if you have a note from previous sessions, then you combine them with current stats into new stat that combines both sessions. You have to weigh by the # of hands (e.g., if one session has VPIP 15 with 100 hands and the other 21 with 200 hands, this should give VPIP 19 with 300 hands) but like, it's just multiplication and addition.


It's a common myth that you always need a large sample size to draw inferences. This is only true if the points are all generated by a very similar distribution. If that's not the case and the distribution is wildly different, you can get valuable information with very few data points. 200 are often enough. The 90% VPIP is a good example; this is a ton of information that you should take seriously, not "a tiny bit".

Click to expand...

See my post above.

kdmeteor said:

The 90% VPIP is a good example; this is a ton of information that you should take seriously, not "a tiny bit".

Click to expand...

I agree. Even after just 10-20 hands 90% VPIP is huge information, especially if its combined with a much lower PFR, and/or you have seen the opponent open limp and/or you have seen them show down junky hands. You dont need the same sample size to separate 90% VPIP from 20% VPIP, as you do to separate 10% 3-bet from 5% 3-bet. Maybe you dont know after 20 hands, thats its exactly 90%, but you certainly know, its way to high, and you can start to exploit that already. For instance its criminal to not go for more thin valuebets postflop against a player like this.