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Tournament Hand Analysis
$44 NL HE MTT: BB vs utg bluff on monotonous board
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6456031, member: 397965"] Preflop I think, its fine to defend this hand to a 2,5BB raise in a game with antes. Maybe we can fold, if its on the final table, and we are a mid stack against a big stack, so that there are big ICM implications for us. But here we are basically playing in chip EV mode, because its early in the tournament. And while our hand certainly offer some reverse implied odds, we are paying 105 to win a pot of 473, which mean, we only need to realise a little more than 20% equity. If we look at this from a theoretical perspective, the opponent is almost certainly making a mistake by opening so small, and when he does, we can profitably defend almost any two cards. Maybe we need to fold total junk, but Q9o is not total junk. Flop I prefer check-calling this flop, the reason being, that you are drawing to a very obvious second best hand. When you raise, a lot of his range for continuing will contain either A of spades or K of spades, which put you in a reverse implied odds situation. If another spade comes, are you going to check-fold? Most likely not, and therefore you need to keep his range wide enough, that betting or check-calling with the third nut flush is still profitable. Turn As played barreling again seems fine. River Now you picked up some showdown value, and spots like these are always tricky. I think, most options are on the table here. You can block bet and fold, if he raise, trying to get called by JJ and TX. You can also check-fold if you think, this guy is basically never bluffing. Or you can check-call, as in fact you did. I dont think, this is terrible in any way, because he should have busted draws mainly with the naked ace of spades, and you are getting better than 3:1. [/QUOTE]
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$44 NL HE MTT: BB vs utg bluff on monotonous board
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