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Message: [QUOTE="300HPGOD, post: 6421275, member: 305911"] Great hand to talk about and I think if we could get a roundtable going for this somehow we could talk for hours about this river. Pre, flop, and turn are all good to me so lets head to the river. As the villain has played this hand I dont think they have any Ax including AA, or any flopped sets. Ax would have bet the flop with two spades out there and if they did slow play AA on the flop and then we lead on the turn with a double flush draw board there is no way they are just calling that bet. Same with a flopped set, if they were to slowplay the flop they arent just calling on the turn. The turn call then to me means villain has 77-KK (still might bet the flop but could also check), two spades (only if they fear you check raising them off their draw so this depends on your image a bit and I agree with Fundiver that this is unlikely they have two spades but possible), or two hearts. Of 77-KK, two spades, two hearts which of those hands will just call us on the river that we beat? Spades will bluff raise or fold, hearts will raise for value, and I think all the pocket pairs will fold (except 99 of course) especially when you size it the way you did. So to me on the river I dont know what we are hoping to just get called by that we beat. Maybe some KK-JJ hands but even those fold and the sizing would have to be smaller to get them to even think about it. Again, I doubt it due to the fact that there is an ace and we checked to the raiser on the flop, and then bet both turn and river at large sizings. Therefore, I like checking the river better than betting the river. I think this may be the exact spot where we are at a cusp though because I dont think there are any hands that really bluff at this outside of possibly two spades (again, I discount that holding) so they most likely check back but at the same time there arent any hands that just call here that we beat given the thinking Ax is not in their range from previous street action. So its a spot where they arent bluffing to you when you check often and they arent calling anything you want them to call with when you bet. As played and what to do is a whole other discussion that could also go back and forth for a long time. I have to stick with my range I give villain after their action on the flop and turn and cant see any two pair hands here (unless they opened something silly like 96 which I highly doubt). So their raise is either hearts, 99, or busted spade draw. I am discounting villain is turning JJ or so into a bluff but its possible, I would think they would just take showdown value if checked to on the river. Spades as mentioned are unlikely so that heavily leans this towards a value raise and not a bluff. I would also think players would not bluff quite as much in bounty tournaments where they are covered due to the fact that their villains have more incentive to call then a normal MTT. I have a hard time justifying making a call here based on what their range should be and I have a hard time laying down a set as well. This is probably a spot where the potential bounty sucks me in and I make the call but I am scared as hell when I click the call button. [/QUOTE]

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