$3.3 NL HE MTT: Nut flush out of position - how do you get paid?

Game is a $3.3 PKO on ACR Poker. Second blind level so very early in the game, which is also apparent from the stack sizes. Opponent relatively unknown with stats of VPIP 20/PFR 10 over just 20 hands. How do you get paid, when you bink the nuts on the river out of position, and how do you play the earlier streets?

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 600/1,200 (150 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

fundiver199 (UTG): 97,550 (81 bb)
PeaceOnU (UTG+1): 112,969 (94 bb)
Captain20 (MP): 101,425 (85 bb)
cosmicsynergy (MP+1): 119,557 (100 bb)
MrHassle (CO): 84,813 (71 bb)
aldouss (BU): 95,830 (80 bb)
MisterInfinity (SB): 129,226 (108 bb)
fadred71986 (BB): 85,081 (71 bb)

Pre-Flop: (3,000) Hero (fundiver199) is UTG with 2♦ A♦
fundiver199 (UTG) raises to 3,000, 4 players fold, aldouss (BU) calls 3,000, 2 players fold

Flop: (9,000) A♣ 7♦ 3♦ (2 players)
fundiver199 (UTG) bets 3,600, aldouss (BU) calls 3,600

Turn: (16,200) 6♣ (2 players)
fundiver199 (UTG) checks, aldouss (BU) bets 9,750, fundiver199 (UTG) calls 9,750

River: (35,700) K♦ (2 players)
fundiver199 (UTG)?

I'd have played this quite differently I think, although all of the decision points feel pretty close to me.

Preflop: Online I would have said fold actually. Looking at a chart right now, the hand seems right at the edge. Which I guess means that if you assume a skill advantage postflop, you can open it. Live I would just decide based on how much the table 3-bets.

Flop: I would have checked; my go-to play with marginal hands that don't need protection is always to check. (Not against a blind range; there I'd always cbet, but against any player acting after me.)

If you're betting, I think the question is, what do you do if you get raised? Do you 3bet? If you check, you have an easy check-call.

Turn: Well I would have lead now, but given that you bet the Flop, definitely check here. I would not check-raise.

River: I'm not trapping. I think you're just gonna see check-backs so many times. And even if your opponent bets half pot, he's probably folding to a jam, so you don't even win more.

So I'm leading; the question is just how much. In GTO world this may be a spot to go huge but I don't think that will work out. Villain is also not likely to have 2 pair here because A7- shouldn't flat and AK should 3bet. I think it's just a slightly-below-pot bet expecting an Ace to pay you.

1 point, I don't consider his statistics, 20 hands is by far irrelevant; 2 you played the hand perfectly until the turn; 3 On this river 100% bet, high size, between 75% and pot, his range is very strong coming into this river, as you block the biggest values, there is no point in trying a check raise, his values like A, 2p which are few playing like this, which are only A7s, A6s, A3s, will slow down a lot on this K completing the flush, but, you can still extract from many of his hands playing like this.

Thanks for the comments. Here are my own thoughts on the hand as well as a solver analysis.

Preflop
Checked the hand in GTO Wizard, and A2s is actually a fold UTG with this stack size. A3s is mostly opened though, so this is not like a massive mistake. If the table is passive, which most microstakes MTTs are, and you think, you have a skill edge, then its fine to simplify and just always open a suited ace with this stack size. On the other hand if those things are not true, its also fine to not play the worst suited aces like A2s-A7s from early position. Either way its not a big deal.

Flop
My thought in real time was to try to build the pot for potentially hitting the nuts. The solver mostly check but sometimes bet A4s and A5s (the solver does not have A2s), and it bets slightly more often with the flushdraw than without it. Check or small C-bet are definitely both fine options.

Turn
My thought in real time was, I can not get 3 streets of value from worse hands, unless I improve, no better hand is going to fold, and I do not want to get raised with only one more card to come. So no reason to go for another bet. Solver agree and check A4s and A5s 100% of the time. When the opponent bet, I think, I am usually behind, but its an easy call with 9 outs to the nut flush.

River
People seem to prefer a donk bet, and this is also, what I did. The donk bet seem so totally obvious, like what am I ever donking here other than exactly a flush? But people just hate folding top pair, so they will still commonly pay off with a hand, they would otherwise have checked back. The solver kind of disagree and mostly check the nut flush, although some combos are actually donked. Which ones seem to depend on blockers, and this is way to complicated for me to try to understand. People seem to prefer a large donk, the solver goes small. I went somewhere in between. Anyway here is the result:

fundiver199 said:

Game is a $3.3 PKO on ACR Poker. Second blind level so very early in the game, which is also apparent from the stack sizes. Opponent relatively unknown with stats of VPIP 20/PFR 10 over just 20 hands. How do you get paid, when you bink the nuts on the river out of position, and how do you play the earlier streets?

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 600/1,200 (150 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

fundiver199 (UTG): 97,550 (81 bb)
PeaceOnU (UTG+1): 112,969 (94 bb)
Captain20 (MP): 101,425 (85 bb)
cosmicsynergy (MP+1): 119,557 (100 bb)
MrHassle (CO): 84,813 (71 bb)
aldouss (BU): 95,830 (80 bb)
MisterInfinity (SB): 129,226 (108 bb)
fadred71986 (BB): 85,081 (71 bb)

Pre-Flop: (3,000) Hero (fundiver199) is UTG with 2♦ A♦
fundiver199 (UTG) raises to 3,000, 4 players fold, aldouss (BU) calls 3,000, 2 players fold

Flop: (9,000) A♣ 7♦ 3♦ (2 players)
fundiver199 (UTG) bets 3,600, aldouss (BU) calls 3,600

Turn: (16,200) 6♣ (2 players)
fundiver199 (UTG) checks, aldouss (BU) bets 9,750, fundiver199 (UTG) calls 9,750

River: (35,700) K♦ (2 players)
fundiver199 (UTG)?

Click to expand...

What range do you give the V for the turn bet? What range does the V give you when you call? EX Would they bet turn with flush draws?How does your player pool react to a check on river based on the range you gave them on turn and the range they expect you to have? Do they check back most often? How strong a hand would they still bet for value and what size do they use? What % of their range is at or above that threshold?

Our river action reasons when we have the nuts any spot not just this one
Checking ----
1 we expect frequent folds when we lead but V bluffs often
2 We expect freq bets and some % of calls when we XR- V will bluff and use larger sizing with bluffs to target our Ax turn checks
3 Our player pool expects us to bet flushes vs the strength they showed on turn. They do not expect us to bluff. (Nobody bluffs Rivers at micro stakes) common statement regarding a large part of the pool----in fact there is bluffing however the freq of bluffing is often too low for herocalls to be profitable without reads. Bet size dependent.

Leading
1 we expect our V to check back often No thin value bets and only small value bets with no herocalls -thin value to V may be as strong as a set
sizing is often small 10-25% of pot often called a blocker bet- with the nuts we get paid by a wider range most often but can also trigger a raise by second nut value or as a bluff.
2 Sizing increase We lead 66% pot we are targeting V who think we could bluff and will not fold top of range non flush hands--we also get value from baby flushes.
3 Huge over bet sizing--polarized to nuts or bluffs--V has to think we can bluff. see brackets above

PKO side note if we thought V would over play their hand on river we can lead all-in get called and double our stack and get a bounty- beyond the bounty having 160bb for more bounties is why we want to play for stacks in bounty MTT vs some players this is the best river action if we range them as having a strong made hand on the river. It will not work often but it need not to be very profitable in PKO. Much more profitable than in standard MTT.

As played I lead 20% pot because of the blocking effect of the Kd and the small turn bet size for V's top of range hands-unless of course they do not understand range sizing but they are your V that would be for you to decide.