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Message: [QUOTE="300HPGOD, post: 6409290, member: 305911"] Pre I would 2.5 as well although a case can be made for 3x at 50 BBs. We do want to at least be called here so I personally like 2.5x and that is what I would do in game as well. On the flop I agree that you should raise here but the fact we have the Ace of clubs is important. It cuts down on villains flush draws. I am with you that when we raise here we want to get called but I think if villain is calling a raise of 90 to 216 they would also call a raise of 90 to 275. I would go slightly bigger here since later in the hand if the runout goes our way we can more easily get it in. The smaller raise sizing is nicer if we are worried they will come back over the top of us but I still prefer slightly bigger here for value on this street and future streets. On the turn we get a nice card and only now have to worry about Q10 (I discount flush draws since we have the the ace of clubs but they are possible, just less likely). With that said the only river cards I am really worried about are a Q or 10. I dont think villain plays this way with J10 or Q10 so it is only KQ and K10 that worry me if even a Q or 10 comes on the river. I think the more plus EV chip way to play this would be to call here on the turn and let villain continue to do what they are doing with the intention of calling/jamming all rivers (even Q, 10, or a club). The less variance route would be to jam here which you can still easily get called by worse (Kx clubs, KJ, maybe even even pair and draw hands). Depends on your risk tolerance but even though at times they might draw out on us I would just call turn and keep all worse hands in. It does look strong when we call over 1/4th our stack on the turn but I dont think villain is thinking that way based on the donk lead stats you posted plus the way they are playing here. So I believe they will most likely lead river as well which we can then put it in. If they do check then we get it in with less than a pot sized shove. I also think flush draws on the turn bet less then half pot here trying to buy a priced in scenario so I rule that out even more meaning there are less rivers we have to worry about. [/QUOTE]

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