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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
$200 NL HE MTT: Bubble dilemma
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6987866, member: 397965"] I plugged the hand into ICMizer now with the small change, that I made it a 45-man SnG with 8 remaining and 7 places paying, since there is no ready made payout structure with 9 places paying. This should not make a huge difference though, and it also makes the simulation a bit easier, since now everyone are on the same table. I entered the stack sizes given by OP and added 12BB for UTG, 20BB for MP and 30BB for MP+1. I also assumed, there was an ante of 1BB, since this is typical of most live tournaments these days. With these assumptions ICMizer actually has AJo as a fold, so I was incorrect in assuming, it would be the bottom of the Nash rejamming range. It is close though, since a jam only loses 0,07% of the price pool. However ICMizer has HJ calling with a very narrow range of TT+, AK. If he also call with AQ, then the jam becomes significant worse now losing 0,59% of the price pool. ICMizer also has HJ opening a somewhat snug range of 18% of hands. If he is opening wider like 30%, because he is trying to play the "chip bully" role, then AJo does become a jam, but its still only breakeven. So to sum it up a jam here is somewhere between breakeven and significantly losing, depending on how HJ play. And by the way BB also has Hero covered, so if he is a bit of a calling station, then jamming also becomes worse. So all in all the best decision here is to fold because of the rather strong ICM-pressure, which Hero is under as a mid stack on the bubble. But if Hero jammed, its not like, its the biggest mistake ever. [/QUOTE]
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$200 NL HE MTT: Bubble dilemma
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