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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
$109 NL HE MTT: 3x donks and overbet on river
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6463802, member: 397965"] Preflop I prefer a larger raise size this deep to create less multiway pots and have a bigger chance to pick it up uncontested. Flop I always get a little curious, when a reg donk bets, and I typically dive into my HUD to see his donk bet stats. If its really low like 3%, I will typically assume, that his donking range is very unbalanced and skewed towards nut hands, which in this case would be KJ. If its higher like 10-15%, then I will put him on a wider range. If its really high like 50-60%, then he is not a reg, and we would not see stats like VPIP 20 / PFR 15. With that being said in this particular case I dont think, there is any play other than to call regardless of his stats. Folding top pair good kicker to a small donk bet on the flop would be extremely tight, and raising would be an overplay. Turn Now he bet again, and just for the record this is not a donk bet. A donk bet means leading into the previous street aggressor. Villian was the flop aggressor, and now he is continuing his aggression, but he is not donk betting. If he had really low donk bet stats like those 3%, maybe we could actually consider bailing out now. But the standard play is definitely to call again and see the river in position. If he check the river, my plan would be to check back and show down my top pair. River Now he is definitely representing KJ for value, and the question is, do we want to bluff catch? I dont play 109$ MTTs, so I am not familiar with, how the average reg at these stakes play. But to me this looks like an underbluffed line. There was no flushdraw, so the only logical bluffs would be hands with a J in them. And a lot of those had showdown value like QJ, JT, J9 and to some extend even AJ. So for me at least its pretty weird to donk those hands on the flop. Personally I would be far more likely to play them as a check-call especially multiway. Donking with KJ makes a lot more sense, because he prevents it from getting checked through, and he might even induce a raise. We can also go back to a simple concept like SPR and look at, which kind of hands we normally would stack off at the present SPR. Here it was around 7 on the flop, and especially multiway a single pair is pretty much never a hand, we want to stack off that deep. An important aspect here is, that Hero can also have the nuts, and all 16 combos of it. So even if Hero was to only call down with the nuts, its not like, this would be massively exploitable. If we do want to call wider than just the nuts, then KK is the most ideal candidate, since it strongly block KJ. But after that KQ seems like a good candidate, because it also block KJ. QJ is way worse, because while it block KJ, it also block all the busted JX draws. [/QUOTE]
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$109 NL HE MTT: 3x donks and overbet on river
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