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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
€100+10 NL HE MTT: To barrel or not to barrel?
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[QUOTE="primrose, post: 7131708, member: 1036998"] This is hand from today's twice-weekly Casino tournament. We're on the final table and I'm chipleader. Villain limps (2000) from UTG+3 with a stack of 41100 (20.5 BB). They're an older guy who plays like the stereotypical older guy. I'm in the HJ with :ad4: :10c4: . I raise to 6100. It folds back to Villain, who just calls. Flop comes :4s4: :8s4: :kd4: (Pot=17200). Villain checks. I have nothing, but this won't stop me from cbetting vs. a limper. I bet 4000. There is no reason to go larger; Villain will just fold this if he has missed it. He calls. Turn comes the :9d4: (Pot=25200). Villain checks. This is the critical point of the hand -- what now? I think there are only two lines that make sense. One is to give up. Giving up here is a totally fine thing to do. Given the early-position-limp range, Villain is quite likely to have hit the King. He's likely calling a second bet. Which means you can never barrel the turn with the intention of checking the River. The other line is to bet with a sizing that sets up a chunky River jam. Villain has capped his range with the limp+call play, and (especially if he just calls again) he's very unlikely to have more than one pair, probably a King -- because sets and two pair would raise, and also there aren't many two pairs in his range. Also, and this is the most important part, it's likely not a good King because the good Kings might have raised preflop. The most likely hand is something like KT or maybe KJ. I almost give up but decide to go for it. Villain has about 30000 behind, so I do some rough math and bet 8000. Villain calls. River is the :5h4: (Pot=41200). Villain checks. The important part about this card is, it's not a broadway. With a T, J,or Q, Villain would be quite likely to have two pair and I'd probably give up. With an Ace I would likely be ahead and would check behind for that reason. But this isn't that, so I go for it and go all-in (covering Villain with his 23000 stack). Villain audibly sighs and then folds. Usually I post hands where I'm unsure if I did something wrong; here I'm pretty confident that this was the right play (though feel free to disagree). I don't get to run this play a lot (I very rarely try to get people to fold top pair), but this was an almost perfect spot for it, where my opponent capped their range to one pair, my line looked convincing, and there was ICM pressure. Like I said it doesn't happen a lot, but if you never triple-barrel bluff, then you don't do it enough, especially against weak live competition. [/QUOTE]
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€100+10 NL HE MTT: To barrel or not to barrel?
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