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Tournament Hand Analysis
$1.10 NL HE MTT: TQs call or fold?
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6727959, member: 397965"] Preflop Standard open. Facing the 3-bet solvers do often like to call with suited and connected hands presumably for board coverage. So presumably this call is "correct" or at least close. However I cant help to feel, that in a buyin this low, and with the 3-bettor being the guy next to add, that it might be fine to overfold a little bit, and it certainly makes our life easier to just get rid of the hand now. Flop Even though you flopped top pair, your hand is still mostly a bluff catcher. But at least you beat AK, and you are getting 4:1. So if you are going to fold now, one has to ask, why you called preflop. On the other hand if you check-raise, you are only getting action from better hands. So not much to do here other than stick in a call, which you did. Turn The first thing to note here is, that Hero is the effective stack, so the bet is actually only around 1.600 and not 2.600, meaning its only a little over pot. And the bad news is, I think, all value hands play like this on a dubble flushdraw board. So there is a lot of value, you lose to. There could be some bluffs as well, but are there enough of them? I think, this is a good spot to study with Equilab or a similar program, so I did. Starting with his value lets give him JJ+, AQ, KQs, QJs. That seems fair enough. Against that range you are obviously crushed with only 7,4% equity. Lets add some bluffs then, and the most reasonable ones are of course the two flushdraws. I gave him AK, AT, A9, A8, A5, A3 and KT of either suit. I dont want to give him every possible suited combo, because I dont think, suited aces or suited broadways are always 3-bet off in this early position configuration. Now you have 27,5% equity, so still not enough. If I also give him all 16 combos of AK, you have 40,7% equity, so now it finally becomes a call. But this is really the best case with a very bluff heavy opponent, who also 3-bet wide. If we assume a narrow 3-betting range, we have to take out all the weak suited aces and KTs as bluffs, and then of course also QJs as value. If we keep all AK as bluffs, you have 34,2%, so now its a fold again. So all in all I do think, this is a good fold. Its easy to get caught up in the nominal strength of your hand in this case "LOL I have top pair". But when your opponent is clearly representing something stronger than your hand, it does really matter, if you have top or bottom pair. You are still bluff catching, and if that is only marginally profitable even in the best case scenario, the better choise is to fold. [/QUOTE]
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$1.10 NL HE MTT: TQs call or fold?
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