Sometimes I feel like I overthink river spots. How do you simplify your decision-making process when facing a big river bet?

Gilead

Gilead

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Sometimes I feel like I overthink river spots. How do you simplify your decision-making process when facing a big river bet?
 
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WellAA

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Unfortunately, there is no simple decision. Mainly You need to know your opponent, isn´t him just wanna a fold, or he got the nuts, maybe he got 2 pair at the river, and your trips at the flop still good. That did happen to me, received all-in on the river, 4 on the hand, I thought, must be a street, one called, I folded, and was AA going all-in, and the guy with two pairs, called. I folded trips of 3s.
How hard you wanna win the tourney? Then better control the pot, and receiving an overbet fold before the river. After all investing over 50% of your stack better call the river, maybe get all-in at the turn and avoid the river spot. :p:cool:
 
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fundiver199

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First step is to determine, if its possible, that the opponent might be betting a worse hand than yours for value, or if a large part of his range might be hands, you chop with. And if either of that is true, then you always call. Maybe you can find some very specific situations, where it might be slightly better to fold, but if you are looking to simplify, then just call in those situations. Like maybe you hold :as4::4s4: on :ad4::3c4::10h4::kh4::3d4: and think, this opponent would absolutely bet :ah4::jh4: perhaps not understanding, that his kicker is counterfeited.

If this is not the case, then you are bluff catching. And questions to ask in this situation are, how high are you in your range, do you have good or bad blockers (removal), and most of all how likely do you think, it is, that the opponent is bluffing? Here board texture matter, like are there many busted draws. But also previous action and simply reads.

In general you want to overcall against maniacs but overfold to nits and also to passive players, who suddenly wake up on the river. Lets say the opponent limped preflop, you raised, he called. You bet flop and turn, he called. You hold :as4::qh4:on :qc4::jc4::2d4: :5s4::9c4: and now the opponent suddenly lead into you for full pot. In this case you should fold, because its very likely, that he has a hand like :ks4::10d4: or :7c4::5c4:, that just got there. Or maybe :2c4::2h4: or :qs4::jd4: that he was slowplaying the whole time, but now he lead out, because he dont want you to check back.
 
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