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Message: [QUOTE="Jack Daniels, post: 467414, member: 1954"] Oh my...I don't know where to begin with this. We've all lost with AA, KK, QQ, etc. But those hands do not lose as much as people think they do. They are long term +EV hands. Nobody remembers all of the wins they've had with those hands, but what they claim are bad beats. In reality, many of the bad beats are actually just poorly played hands that lost and the poster is complaining how his AA lost. And it doesn't always come down to the cards on the table. Hands can be won before a showdown, whether they are actually strong or not. As far as new comers winning the MEGA ENTRY events is just because of sheer numbers and the limited luck that is involved in poker. The 2006 ME had 8300+ entries with just a handful of pros in comparison (let's call it 5% were real pros, though I'd guess that the number was smaller than that even). So 5% of 8300 is 415 pros vs 7885 non-pros which, from a straight numbers perspective is 19 to 1 odds. Discount the non-pros advantage a little because many of them simply do not have the skill needed to compete. In fact discount it by 50%. That still makes it 9.5 to 1 against the pros. These mass numbers are why amateurs win the mega events on TV. Flip the numbers. Put 19 pros and 1 amatuer in a two table tourney. The amatuer is not 19 to 1 to win. In reality he would be a huge dog, not unlikely to be 1000 to 1 to win against that field. And Jamie Gold did get lucky a lot. But even the pros all acknowledge that to win a jumbo sized 8300+ person crapshoot will require both skill and luck. Lest we not forget that a well known pro did make the final table (and wasn't there another cash game pro there as well, I think?). But contrary to popular belief and personal feelings, Jamie does have some poker skills. He may not be the greatest player ever, but he did have a great read on his opponents. And he used table talk (within the tournament rules) to better his position and exploit his opponents. He played fantastic big stack poker (starting on day 4 and never lost the chip lead) and he bullied his opponents appropriately. That type of aggressive play and position doesn't require the greatest of cards. It allows for some speculative play in which getting a lucky flop will pay you off. You really need to go back to basics if you want to start being a winning player. I'd suggest you read through all of the info available in the [URL="https://www.cardschat.com/poker-strategy.php"]Articles Section[/URL] of the site. But thinking that skill, probability, etc is unneeded and adds no benefit simply means you have no idea what you are talking about. In all honesty, it sounds more like that rantings of someone who thought they knew what they were doing, probably learned to play watching edited TV hands, lost their entire bankroll playing how they shouldn't be, and is now looking to rationalize the losses by blaming luck as being the only factor in poker. [/QUOTE]

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