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[QUOTE="nwtfdan, post: 351621, member: 7452"]
Just my two bits here.  With the Kelly formula, everything is based on a structure, known factors, and limits (to an extent).  The big difference with poker are the variables: add about 10-15 more variables for every new player you face.  Every player plays different and thinks different, because they are playing for themselves.  With most other forms of gambling, you are playing against the house, and they have to abide by very strict rules.  We, as individual players, playing with our own bankrolls, don't have to abide by any set rules or standards.  I.E.: how many times have you had your AA beaten, or been beat by a hand like 74 offsuit?  Or won in the Big Blind with 74 offsuit?  You see, there could never be a formula that could work with all those unknown factors (people).  It may be possible for you to come up with your own formula that would apply to a certain group that you play with regularly (maybe a home game once a week).  For that, you would need to keep track of every move each player made through each hand, and the results of those hands.  Try to know their playing strategy and their personal "standards" for play, and you might be able to come close to a viable formula; except when one guy changes up his style on you or gets better (God forbid!).  Then you are back to square one.  
     My formula for poker: study the opponent, and play the opponent.
 
Dan
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