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Message: [QUOTE="turnupthebb, post: 6894556, member: 1030136"] Many pros who teach poker including Galfond say that it's very hard to have a 3bb/100 winrate. Many of these pros have shown their winrate and that is usually what their winrate is. Not even the best players can get much higher than 3bb/100 winrate at Zoom. So if 3bb/100 is kind of the soft ceiling of what we can expect as winrate if we become one of the best players, what does that mean? It means BAD because of variance. 3bb/100 is terrible if you want to make a living from playing poker. Online poker has very high variance (std deviation). So just go use a variance tool for poker and see for youself if you haven't already. 3bb/100 winrate means you can play half a million hands and still be losing money, you will not be profitable after half a million hands. Half a million hands is a lot of hands. 500k hands will take you 1-3 years of hard grinding multi tables 5 days per week. So after 1-3 years you will have lost money even if your true winrate is 3bb/100. But you will maybe think your winrate is negative (losing) because you don't know what your true winrate is, you only see the winrate that is result of variance. So is this good for making a living from poker if you have to grind full time for 1-3 years and lose money? This is not a good enough winrate to make a dependable living from. You would need maybe 8bb/100 winrate but that's not something many pros have. It would require to play very few tables and doing a lot of table selection to bum hunt and exploit. You can't just sit down at any table or play zoom. Also you need to be incredibly good at poker, better than the ones who teach you poker. Do you think you can achieve 8bb/100 true winrate at 1k nl? Even if you can get a 3bb/100 winrate which is very difficult, its as you can see yourself from a variance tool, not dependable as income because you have to pay your rent and food and internet but you are just losing every month for 1-3 years, losing and losing because of variance even if your true winrate is 3bb/100. How will you survive for 1-3 years losing? Not easy. And i haven't even mentioned how it will affect your mental health, your confidence in poker, tilt, etc. Also don't get fooled if you have played maybe 100k hands and have a good winrate. That is probably not your true winrate, you could have been lucky and maybe your true winrate is much lower, maybe only 1bb/100 or maybe even -1bb/100 or worse. Losing players can win money if they get lucky and they can get lucky for 100k+ hands, that's how variance works. I have seen some pros who have 17bb/100 winrate, they brag about it. But then they also show that it's only like 15k hands or 40k hands or something. So that is meaningless. Go look and play with a variance tool and see yourself.. it means absolutely nothing to show a winrate with so few hands. You need to play millions of hands before you can start to think about if this is your true winrate. 50k hands is just gambling and not something anyone can make a living from. Just don't know if I wanna really get back to studying and learning poker again. Variance and soft caps on how much we can expect to have winrate and how all politcians hate poker and want to make it impossible to play and so much trouble everywhere with poker. Maybe it's better to i dont know, maybe try my luck at writing a best seller book lol. If I dedicate myself to poker then I want at least 8bb/100 winrate, 3bb/100 winrate is not enough, but it seems stupid to have 8bb/100 as goal when most pros can't have that winrate. Also poker keeps getting tougher with more and more people using GTO charts, solvers etc which means true winrates should slowly be decreasing every few years. [/QUOTE]

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