Top top facing shove in 1/2 live game

Playing at a table for a couple of hours. Villain in SB is a reg and has been relatively aggressive with sizings but haven't actually seen many showdowns. Other villain in MP is unknown but seems like more of a casual player.

Hero is effective stack with $460 in the BB.

MP opens to $15, SB calls, hero raises AQo $60 from BB and both villains call.

Pot $180. Flop comes Qd 6h 4c.

SB checks. Hero bets $100. Both villains call.

Pot $480. Turn comes Th.

Villain in the SB shoves (while I only have $300 behind, other villains playing with about $500)

What do you do in this spot? My thinking was:
- tough to make a call when there's another player behind
- although I've got a strong hand, I could be dead to a set, QT got there
- best case I'm up against combo draws and even then might just be a flip
- I'm getting pretty good odds to make the call
- in 1/2 I feel like playing fairly ABC is most successful i.e. my range has AA, KK, QQ, AQ so if villain is jamming here they must feel pretty strong

Would love to hear what you'd do and feedback on my thought process. Thanks!

Preflop
Seems like a fine spot to 3-bet. Maybe you can go a bit larger, since you are out of position against MP.

Flop
Obviously a fine spot to C-bet for value. Maybe you can go a bit smaller, especially since the SPR (Stack to Pot Ratio) is just a bit over 2. Which by the way also mean, that this is a spot, where you are never even considering to fold TPTK, unless the board runs out really bad like 4 cards to a straight or flush.

Turn
Pot is $480, and you only have $300 left behind. If he had checked to you, then surely you would have jammed for value? So why change your mind, just because SB did it for you? There is hardly ever a situation in poker, where its correct to bet for value and then change your mind and fold to a single bet, when nothing has changed other than the bet itself. At least not when we are talking normal bet sizes like less than pot.

I will admit, that it does not make much sense for SB to have a bluff here. But it also does not make any sense for him to have a hand, that beat you, and play it this way. TT should have folded the flop, at least when MP had already called. 66, 44 and QT should have folded preflop, and Q6, Q4 even more so. QQ+ should have 3-bet himself or backraised, if he played them as a slowplay. And if he did dubble flat pre with anything, that beat you on the flop, he should either have check-jammed the flop or checked again on the turn.

So nothing makes sense here other than maybe 1-2 combos of QTs, you were (hopefully?) planning to jam yourself if checked to, and you already labeled MP as a fish, so there is no reason to worry to much about him having a hand, that beat you. And finally you are getting better than 2:1, and you only need to win around 28% and even less, if MP also call. Easy call.

Preflop: a 15$ open is 7.5x in a 1/2 game. If this is not normal for this player, then I would just fold here. Unusually large opens tend to mean strong hands. Don't just treat it as if he bet 7$ or even 10$.

If you do raise, you have to raise much larger. 4x is normal without an intermediate caller. If you go 3x with a caller, then this happens. Make it 80$ at least.

Flop: you should bet much smaller here, maybe 50$.

Turn: call and hope it's KQ or at least AQ for a chop. You're probably beat, but KQ plays this way so you can't fold with this price. Most likely hand is probably QT.

Thanks for feedback.

With regards to open size, $15 is not uncommon. Most players open $10 but it's not uncommon to see anything from $5 to $20.

Pre flop it sounds like I should be raising bigger.

Flop I should bet smaller, maybe 1/3 pot.

Playing this out, we would get $240 in the pot preflop (both players calling) with $380 behind.

Betting something like $75 into that and getting two calls there's $465 in the pot and $305 behind. So it works out to be a very similar turn position.

If SB doesn't jam turn then yes if say that I would, looking for calls from KQ, QT, flush/straight draws. I guess that you're right to say then I should be calling there too.

Personally I don't think it is fair though to say 66 44 and QT would have folded preflop, this is live poker and (as you'll see here when I reveal hands) there are wide calling ranges.

Anyway, as you can tell probably already, I folded the hand. I think I got a bit caught up in "if people show aggression in live poker they almost always have it". I probably didn't think enough about the STP ratio and only needing to be right 28% of the time.

MP ended up calling so it went to showdown.

SB showed 75hh, loose preflop call, called flop with open ender and then jammed combo draw.

MP called with Q9hh (which is why I said I don't think you can discount QT, 66, 44 from their ranges).

River bricked so pair of queens won.

averagegambler said:

Personally I don't think it is fair though to say 66 44 and QT would have folded preflop, this is live poker and (as you'll see here when I reveal hands) there are wide calling ranges.

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Not saying they WOULD fold, but they SHOULD. And if those hands make it to the turn, then a lot of other hands also make it to the turn, which you beat. Also you said SB was a "reg", but a good player dont call an enormous raise from SB with 75s and then also call a 3-bet. So I think, you are giving SB way to much credit for having any kind of idea, what he is doing. Maybe he play regularly, but he is still a huge fish judging from the way, he played this hand.

averagegambler said:

Anyway, as you can tell probably already, I folded the hand. I think I got a bit caught up in "if people show aggression in live poker they almost always have it". I probably didn't think enough about the STP ratio and only needing to be right 28% of the time.

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You also did not think about the fact, it makes no sense to slowplay something on the flop and then donk a brick turn. So he is representing like exactly QTs and nothing else.

averagegambler said:

SB showed 75hh, loose preflop call, called flop with open ender and then jammed combo draw. MP called with Q9hh (which is why I said I don't think you can discount QT, 66, 44 from their ranges). River bricked so pair of queens won.

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And this is why, you just cant fold in a situation like this. You gave way to much credit to two opponents, who did not deserve it.

averagegambler said:

Anyway, as you can tell probably already, I folded the hand. I think I got a bit caught up in "if people show aggression in live poker they almost always have it". I probably didn't think enough about the STP ratio and only needing to be right 28% of the time.

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It happens The heuristic "live players don't bluff" works so often that it's easy to get annoyed and just fold in any one case without thinking through whether this one may be an exception. This is probably a lesson that you'll have to learn several times before you stop making the mistake. Posting the hand was a good move, this will make it more emotionally salient for a while.

Even if you had called, I think it was correct given pot odds, but I still expected >50% of you being beat. There's probably a negative survivorship bias here where you may not have posted if he had shown QT. (Which isn't a bad thing, it makes sense to focus on hands where you guessed wrong.)

averagegambler said:

With regards to open size, $15 is not uncommon. Most players open $10 but it's not uncommon to see anything from $5 to $20.

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This is unrelated to the remaining hand, but one general comment is that a basic adjustment is to just play tighter. Because the optimal RFI ranges depend on the open sizes. If you look at a GTO chart, it probably uses something like 2.3BB or something, maybe 2.5. If people raise 5BB-10BB, you can play crazy tight. You could easily shave the bottom third off of each range without risking blinding out.

You don't have to do this, you can also play normal GTO ranges and beat the game that way. But just tightening up is completely viable and it will reduce variance, so if variance is something you struggle with, this is worth considering.

primrose said:

If people raise 5BB-10BB, you can play crazy tight.

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There is also not much reason to call out of the blinds, when you are not getting any meaningful discount. So even the BB strategy moves much closer to 3-bet or fold, just like the SB strategy does against a smaller open.

fundiver199 said:

There is also not much reason to call out of the blinds, when you are not getting any meaningful discount. So even the BB strategy moves much closer to 3-bet or fold, just like the SB strategy does against a smaller open.

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Yes, strongly agree with this. Almost everyone, even winning players, call way too much from the blinds vs. large opens.

Before you sit down to the table, you have to decide what you are there for, how you will get there and how youre going to play a hand before you play it.

To me, if theyre a reg tben theyre value betting players and youre seeing what they have imo, and theyre not calling 60 with qt when they can side step that and look for better spots imo. so . . i would reevaluate their game but thats my opinion.

as for the op, i mean , if youre going to blow pots up and play for stacks then that should be your plan and stick to it.

youre going to be someone that walks out of there with a few full buyins but you will have days where you lose a buy or two or 3 lolol depending if youre a winning player and your daily stop loss limit.

yeah 12 is standard and im surprised the whole silly table didnt call, lol because that happens a lot at that game. but if the original raise isolates then. . . the reasoning behind your reraise is to build the pot so you can get all your money in the pot later on but you have aq, a drawing hand.

so im like if youre the one that wants the variance and swings in your bankroll then go for it.

but once you blow the pot up like that then youre announcing what you have unless youre out there doing weird stuff then youre probably not going to be playing for hours unless youre rebuying.

so they should probably put you on ak,aq tens up, if theyre paying attention or can put you on a hand.

even tens is going to have overs on the board something like 80%+ ? so its more then likely ak, aq there or the major pairs. so that reraise screams ak in todays game.

whatever, but If you blow that pot up like that then you shouldnt fold it once you hit top pair top kicker.

if one of them flips over kk or a set and itll happen from time to time then thats that and you reach in for another buy in or bail.

so im not a fan of folding. if you played it tighter then sure fold 15 or 35 out of 450 if you hate the action but as fun said the spr is pointing towards the pot committed side and not the folding side.

just stick to it. dont worry about it but you have know what youre going to do and accept whaf comes with that style of play ie the variance.

and the initial mighf have have a pair like 44 or 66 or the 2nd caller but once you reraise like that then those hands "should" dissappear because a reg is going to know how often overs hit the flop and like i said, wouldbpick better spots.

if they call, then theyre going to be going off a read of whether they think youre solid enough to make you fold by applying pressure later on in the hand and by putting you on ak jj tt etc and thinking since they have a q in their hand then you probably dont have one.

I might have missed it but i would asked them what they put you on as soon as the hand was over to see what they are. but imo, seems like rec players enjoying themselves.

gl

averagegambler said:

Playing at a table for a couple of hours. Villain in SB is a reg and has been relatively aggressive with sizings but haven't actually seen many showdowns. Other villain in MP is unknown but seems like more of a casual player.

Hero is effective stack with $460 in the BB.

MP opens to $15, SB calls, hero raises AQo $60 from BB and both villains call.

Pot $180. Flop comes Qd 6h 4c.

SB checks. Hero bets $100. Both villains call.

Pot $480. Turn comes Th.

Villain in the SB shoves (while I only have $300 behind, other villains playing with about $500)

What do you do in this spot? My thinking was:
- tough to make a call when there's another player behind
- although I've got a strong hand, I could be dead to a set, QT got there
- best case I'm up against combo draws and even then might just be a flip
- I'm getting pretty good odds to make the call
- in 1/2 I feel like playing fairly ABC is most successful i.e. my range has AA, KK, QQ, AQ so if villain is jamming here they must feel pretty strong

Would love to hear what you'd do and feedback on my thought process. Thanks!

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tough..... the player behind is not an issue their range is wide-- focus on the reg shove for study

although...... this is what we work on why would a set do this?
why would a good reg shove on a card that does not change the nuts when this shove most often gets folds?
A good reg should know you are strong here and you will bet again so why lead shove TT or QT?
Why would reg think you will not bet but will call a shove? Try to build a range that would do that? AKhh KJhh- why target 2 hands
Reg with the nuts --why do they want to get the rec to fold? Shoving into 2 players gets a lot of folds.
Does the Reg have a read on you that you over fold? You are thinking about folding vs a combo draw---do they have a read?

Folding could be correct here -the answers to the above questions could be they jam hands on turn that are much better as a check jam or call your jam hoping the 3rd player continues. TT QT 66 are all hands that make more profit checking turn then lead jamming.