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MDF on small river bet
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[QUOTE="gustav197poker, post: 6190383, member: 393841"] Ok preflop. I do not know your group of players or the room where you play, but you are at a long table. Reason why the ranges of the opponents tend to get smaller. Here the most aggressive players will try to knock you down with reasonable hands. The V should not 3-bet with pockets less than 99 at a long table. Because just being aggressive doesn't mean he's spewy, when he has no good reason to get involved in this boat. The 2/3 flop bet is a bit polarizing for this dry texture, however the call gets thinner when we have another player to speak. On the turn, the V bet becomes too big in size and according to you, the V is aggressive enough to continue bluffing. For your call turn to be profitable, your opponent must have at least all combinations: AK in his bluff range. On the river many of their V values have been neutralized because now, any ace beats them. So at that point the bluffs of V has become values against our range. And on the other hand, the overpairs that CO had now represent his bluffs for us (except AA). Therefore, if we reduce the range V: JJ-KK: 18c + AKo / s: 16c + AA: 6c + 99: 3c = 43 combos. Fold equity: 0 / 43c: 0% It turns out that if we bluff the river, we need V to fold 30% of the time, but this is very difficult when we estimate that no combo will fold here. The reason is that any overpair should not bet on this board and if he does, he will never fold. Because we have a clear disadvantage in our range. We have not shown any aggression in postflop, therefore we do not represent sets and we do not represent top hands. Therefore we have a standard fold in the river. Greetings. [/QUOTE]
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