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Message: [QUOTE="loafaBREAD, post: 5735641, member: 440287"] OK… I’ll take a crack at this. (for what it’s worth! I only play 10nl) If it comes off as gibberish, please ignore it! V’s flop XC range could be a bit wide since this is 4 way, especially if you have history with this guy. UTG XC range: 9Ts, JTs, QTs, TT, 99, ATs, AJ = 32c If he’s tricky (unlikely considering how the hand played out) QJs, QQ = 5c (I will ignore these) By the time he XCs twice and checks a third time, he’s got AJ, QTs, JTs, and maybe TT and 99 if people hang on at those stakes. (again, clueless) Total of 26 combos. Assuming he can fold JTs, TT and 99, he can fold 11/26 = 42% It’s a 59 bb pot, so a 43bb bet would only have to work ~42% of the time. I don’t know how this would look since you only have 60.24 left behind on the river. A jam would need him to fold a bit over ½ the time to BE. As for what cards to use as a bluff, in my model he calls with QTs and AJ so you’d want to block those. KT of another suit would be better for that. ATs would be the best candidate. Your 3 streets value would be QJs, KQs, AQ, JJ sometimes, and maybe 66 (not sure if these are all calls 100% for you). For your opponent to call 43bb, they’d need to win ~29% of the time so you can do about 2.4:1 value to bluff, and throw a few more bluffs due to your nitty image. It’s 23 combos listed, but let’s call it 20 since you may 3! AQs and JJ sometimes. You need at least 10 bluffs (just about 10 in the jam scenario), so AT works best, KT is second. I really don’t know what else to use there for a bluff! If V is folding AJ sometimes to a jam, or if he winds up at the river with more missed draws/underpairs, then maybe KT could work as a jam. What did you end up doing? I’m curious as to what he was holding! [/QUOTE]

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