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[QUOTE="gustav197poker, post: 5986864, member: 393841"]
I guess you trust that sample so you give us the information.Assuming the villain PFR 25% this is something close to: 22+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A9o+, KTo+, QJo
If we think of villain F3B: 33% preflop, V range has to be the remaining 67% from CO. But since we are a wide range from SB, we could include some random combos, so this has an approximate form of: 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, AJo+
Against this range you are way ahead, both on the flop and on the turn. But from the perception of your range, when you do 1/3 OTF, the villain must raise much bigger, when he wants to get value of his implied odds. Also, the villain is a bit deep, so the size he chose is very suspicious. So if we decide to call OTF, it is because our goal is to get value from OTT polarized bets from it.
As played on the flop, villain now knows that he has a very large disadvantage in his range, while we represent all the best flush draws (possibly flushs made now).
If we assume that the villain here has the semi nuts, this is the same as disregarding the statistics, since they do clearly show that this player is not a nit.
Obviously it's better to push on the flop, but given the sequence played I don't hate pushing OTT.
Greetings.
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