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Poker Strategy
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Cash Game Hand Analysis
€200 NL HE Full Ring: Top Pair good hand to go all in on the river on a draw heavy board?
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[QUOTE="300HPGOD, post: 6807637, member: 305911"] Pre: obviously an open and I think live this is a fine open size. I think depending on how bad the players are after you, you could also open to 10 here but 8 is good imo. Flop: We clearly want to bet to get value from AJ and A10 along with diamond draws. I think your sizing is a little big but its not redic for live games. Online Id say 8-12 works but live I like more like 15. So although I dont think 20 is terrible I much more prefer 15 here as it still makes them draw against the flush and also gets us good value when we are up against Ax that we are ahead of. Turn: Don't really like the turn card. Nice that its not a diamond but I would not want to see a J or 10 here and we get one. It means our target range has shrunk a bit. I would still bet here but not nearly as much as you did. I think live here I would bet around half or 30 and online here I would be 20-25. When villain calls I would be concerned as my only value targets that I think would call two streets would be A10 or maybe a hand like 109 of diamonds. I dont think (unless villain is bad) that they just call down with A7 or lower here since they could not have 2 diamonds with those hands. I would expect a raise at this point from A8 or A9 but still concerned when they call, especially for this sizing. I definitely think you can throw diamonds out of their range minus 109 of diamonds or possibly J10 of diamonds. River: I like this card since it makes it less likely villain has AK. I would check here as well, and probably would check any card that comes on the river unless I knew I was against a station (which in live 1/2 or 2/2 as you say this game was is probably a mistake since you will miss value at times) to see if I could get villain to bluff. I would think there one pair small value hands check back river just to see it so this bet does have some polarization to it. AK is there along with some of the other two pair hands but a lot of those hands raise turn as they are weary of draws, however, I am not sure we bet the way we do with a draw with the ace on the board so maybe villain discounts that and would just call. In any fashion, I would check here looking to see if villain fires knowing it could be a bluff. Then it comes down to what I think about villain. I will say that there are a lot of 2 pair Ax with this board and diamonds should not have called turn, especially with the sizing you made it minus just a few combos. I would say this could be a bluff but would think given the board much more often than not they have it and lean towards folding (again, that is without knowing anything about villain and playing live we get to pick up a lot on their play). [/QUOTE]
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€200 NL HE Full Ring: Top Pair good hand to go all in on the river on a draw heavy board?
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