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$2 NLHE 6-max: Is this a losing play long term?
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 5910657, member: 397965"] Getting different perspectives on a hand is exactly, what this forum is for :) In this situation I dont think, it really matters, that the flushdraw was a backdoor draw. The reason is, Hero check-called the flop, so he did not give Villain an option to fold. Villain bet full pot on the flop when checked to, but he could basically be doing that with any two cards trying to take advantage of Heros apparent weekness. Villains line of betting full pot on the flop then checking back a largely brick turn is pretty weird, and its probably not a line, a good player would take with any hand. A good player typically also dont cold call a 3-bet preflop. So the only information, I am getting from Villains actions, is, that he is probably not very good. So I would put him on a pretty wide range going to the river. He probably dont have complete junk like K4 or J8, but apart from that it could be almost anything. This mean, that there are quite a few flush combos, he can have, especially since none of the big flush cards are on the table. Its certainly not only KX of clubs, it could also be any other club combo, that went for a wild bluff on the flop and then luckboxed into a runner-runner. But that being said the overbet could still be good. It depends on, how wide we think, this guy will be calling. Which with a player like this is very read dependent. And obviously only Hero could have those reads in real time. If he is never folding top pair, then probably the overbet is fine, since all his other AK, KQ, KJ might also play this way, and there are more combos of those hands than flushes. It is a very exploitable line though, and its certainly more likely to be profitable at 2NL than at any limits higher than that. At 2NL its 2 bucks to call, and many recreational players dont really care about losing that amount of money. But even at 10NL it will be 10 bucks, and then at least some of them will be more likely to make a disciplined laydown. If you spew 10 bucks at a time by calling river overbets with top pair in spots like this, it gets pretty expensive pretty quickly. So those people doing it likely either go broke or move back down to 2NL ;) [/QUOTE]
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$2 NLHE 6-max: Is this a losing play long term?
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