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Message: [QUOTE="300HPGOD, post: 5889432, member: 305911"] These are tough spots. First thing I noticed was villain has a 9% 3 bet which is a little higher than normal and they did not 3 bet here. That starts me to think that they have middling connected cards here like 89,76,109,78, etc. That is just my initial reaction which could be way off but I find it is much easier to go through a hand if you start ranging an opponent with their every move and not just when they make a big move and then have to backtrack. On the flop I would bet as well just to get the pot going. I like slightly higher than 2BB as if they have nothing they will fold anyway but many villains will tend to float on boards like these and you can get a little more value over time when you go a little bigger. Turn I would bet as you did here but when we get check raised I now go back to the range that I put villain on pre flop. Almost all those middling connector cards now have hit something whether it is a made hand or a draw. I would call as you did but my plan would be to be cautious on the river if I could be. Once we dont fold this turn (not saying we should) then I think better villains will know what we have here and will be able to decipher that a large part of our range is overpairs. That is important because when I see the river bet sizing I think its even more polarized than I normally would think with that sizing which is pretty polarized to begin with. However, if I really think villain has a good idea of what I have do they think I would fold QQ+ here? They have played with us for 400 hands so they have a decent idea of how we play and we should know how we play. So I would ask myself how often do I fold in these spots and translate that to what they think of me. In the end since my best guess is villain knows what we have here often they are not bluffing into us but believe we call with big pairs here and look them up. I would fold here and at least look at the bright side of things that this was not a very big pot as far as how much we invested in it. [/QUOTE]

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