$10 NL HE 6-max: Nut flush facing shove on paired board, 150BB deep

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

habib599 (UTG): $11.17 (112 bb)
brightsunfun (MP): $15.23 (152 bb)
Pudelacu (CO): $10.57 (106 bb)
cappybmse (BU): $30.08 (301 bb)
_PJB_ (SB): $9.90 (99 bb)
JonathanPla (BB): $27.84 (278 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero (JonathanPla) is BB with A♣ Q♣
1 fold, brightsunfun (MP) calls $0.10, 3 players fold, JonathanPla (BB) raises to $0.50, brightsunfun (MP) calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.05) 7♣ 3♦ 8♣ (2 players)
JonathanPla (BB) bets $0.30, brightsunfun (MP) calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.65) 3♣ (2 players)
JonathanPla (BB) bets $0.89, brightsunfun (MP) raises to $4.24, JonathanPla (BB) calls $3.35

River: ($10.13) 2♥ (2 players)
JonathanPla (BB) checks, brightsunfun (MP) bets $10.19 (all-in), JonathanPla (BB) folds

Total pot: $10.13 (Rake: $0.64)
brightsunfun (MP) wins $9.49

Played correctly, IMO. With an effective stack of 152 bb and against a tight limper, I would have played it the same. I think a villain who plays 14% of hands isn't that likely to raise 4.7x OTT and then jam OTR with bluff. I think a tight could do it sometime with Kx (with the Kc), but that would be the best-case scenario.

Sucks to have to do it, but if your read matches with the HUD stats, then it's a fold.
The thing that does smell suspicious to me is the slightly large c/r on the turn. I would be curious did he insta raise or did he take a long time? (I am thinking if he took a long time, he might be calculating what size to raise turn to set up a reasonable size river shove)

Could he have made a smaller flush (e.g. TcJc or 9cTc) and is protecting? Or does he have 77/88 and is hoping you have Ac and will continue or better yet, what you actually have?

Seems unlikely to be a bluff. You can only hope that he has club connectors, but a FH probably more likely.

On a side note... being OOP sucks.

Wow, that play is so wierd!!! :O I think you played hand well. The only mistake is really to call that awfully overbet raise on turn. Just fold there. Limp + call PF usually means middle PP. 7-8 seems kindof right in between there right!? he have position on you so he dosent need to reraise on flop even if thats usually what they do right away if VI flops a set.

But as i said. you played PF A+ , flop A+ , Turn vent from A - E- when you called that OB raise. It's ok to call if you have some read that VI will BLUFF on river so you can call that, but if you don't have a read just think one step longer (river and can you call an allin there) just fold directly on turn.

Preflop
I like isolating big out of position.

Flop
I prefer to go larger here to apply more pressure and almost for value with a hand this strong.

Turn
You bet again and now comes the interesting part of the hand, since he raise, and he goes fairly large setting it up for a pot sized jam on the river. Obviously you lose to boats, but I think, its fair to say, a player with stats like these will not limp-call preflop with 83 or 73, so its really only the flopped sets, and there are only 7 combos of those.

I also find it very weird, why he would just call a small C-bet on the flop with a set on a wet board and potentially let you make a flush or straight for cheap, but then change gear and start to raise, when he has filled up and no longer need to protect against anything. This line is more consisting with a smaller flush or trips, because those hands actually improved on the turn, which a flopped set did not.

On the other hand why is a player with stats like 14/9 even limping preflop? Could it be a case, where he is so unbalanced, that he only limp small pocket pairs and raise everything else? If that is the case, then he obviously cant have a flush or trips and then his only raises for value are boats. So if that was, what you were thinking, then its ok to just call here and see, what happen on the river.

River
Given what I wrote above, I would also check to him and fold to his jam. I think, that if he did have trips or even a smaller flush, he might check back or bet smaller, so when he jam, it really does smell like a boat. As others have said, I find it very unlikely, that he is bluffing, and he also cant have the main bluffing card for this board, which is Ac, because you have it. So then it would be something like 87s turning itself into a bluff, because it block boats, which I think is just way to advanced for a 10NL player, who limp preflop.

I will XR OTF, Nit like Villain can face up w/ Sets like 77, 88 or low cards FD on the Wet Flop and use Big bet, maybe over bet, ez call 4u. Then OTT if Villain still big bet, they have Uncapped Range w/ smaller Flush or Boat, ez call 4u. Then OTR if they Jam, I will fold because I think they will XB or use smaller bet w/ low Flush and they are Passive Nit. Vs NL10 Tight Passion players, I only use Exploit to make decisions, no need to use Balance.

Pretty surprised by the advice you're getting here. I would have jammed the Turn for value and happily called the River. I don't understand why we are giving the opponent credit for a boat when they could easily do this with trips or just a weaker flush. Vilain could just have ; every street makes perfect sense with this hand.

The only reason why this fold seems not-crazy to me are the stats. If villain actually limps only pocket pairs, for example, then of course that changes everything and now folding is correct. If we don't know this but just think they're a huge nit, then I'm still okay with the fold. But I would have to be very confident in my read to do this. The stats alone aren't enough because it's not unusual for someone to be tight preflop and then play a medium flush like it's a super strong hand. Because it in fact is a super strong hand. It makes perfect sense to put you on an overpair, raise the Turn for value, and Jam the River for value, with a weaker flush.

Or, idk, maybe I've just forgotten how much more nitty online players are and would have made a big mistake here.

kdmeteor said:

Or, idk, maybe I've just forgotten how much more nitty online players are and would have made a big mistake here.

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I played a decent amount of 10NL on PokerStars back in the day, and this hand kind of made me chuckle a little bit, because it brought back memories of these insanely unbalanced and nitty "bad reg" type of players, who can basically only have the nuts, when they take a line like this. Unlike the fish, which you also find online, they are never overplaying anything. And they are certainly never bluffing, when they press the "pot" button to raise the turn and then jam for full pot on the river.

The hand is funny, because if we assume, he flopped a set, then he slowplayed it on the flop hoping for exactly the 3 of clubs, so he could stack a flush? Its almost to perfect. But its still more likely, that this "bad reg" type of player made a bad slowplay on the flop and hit his perfect turn card, than any of the alternatives, which would allow us to have the best hand. And especially when he limp-called preflop, because as already discussed what kind of limping range does a player like this most likely have?

If this was a different player type like a 34/9 rather than a 14/9, then I would be far more likely to stick in the call and say "if you got me, you got me". And in online tournaments, which I play these days, I will also pretty much never fold the nut flush, just because the board is paired. But in this specific situation with a 10NL cash game, 150BB deep and a nitty "bad reg" type of opponent, who limp-called preflop, I think, its a good fold.

Hmm. Yeah I guess in this case a proper outside view suggests that you are probably correct and he just has the boat. On the bright side, if you can correctly fold hands like this one, then that's a pretty sick exploit.

kdmeteor said:

On the bright side, if you can correctly fold hands like this one, then that's a pretty sick exploit.

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It is, and that might be part of the reason, why this player is actually losing at around 5BB/100 long term according to the tracking site Statsname. I mean.... if he can not even get paid, when he cooler someone with a boat against their nut flush, because his lines are completely unbalanced, then that will hurt his winrate

14/9 over how many hands?

If this is a decent sample... meh, then maybe I could see the river fold. If it's not a decent sample, or against most players, you should be GII on the turn.

VrakasYi said:

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

habib599 (UTG): $11.17 (112 bb)
brightsunfun (MP): $15.23 (152 bb)
Pudelacu (CO): $10.57 (106 bb)
cappybmse (BU): $30.08 (301 bb)
_PJB_ (SB): $9.90 (99 bb)
JonathanPla (BB): $27.84 (278 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero (JonathanPla) is BB with A♣ Q♣
1 fold, brightsunfun (MP) calls $0.10, 3 players fold, JonathanPla (BB) raises to $0.50, brightsunfun (MP) calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.05) 7♣ 3♦ 8♣ (2 players)
JonathanPla (BB) bets $0.30, brightsunfun (MP) calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.65) 3♣ (2 players)
JonathanPla (BB) bets $0.89, brightsunfun (MP) raises to $4.24, JonathanPla (BB) calls $3.35

River: ($10.13) 2♥ (2 players)
JonathanPla (BB) checks, brightsunfun (MP) bets $10.19 (all-in), JonathanPla (BB) folds

Total pot: $10.13 (Rake: $0.64)
brightsunfun (MP) wins $9.49

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One golden rule of thumb for microstakes cash game never play FPS (Fancy play syndrome),
so play your monsters and a Nutflush is a monster aggressively (no slowplay).

On the flop 1/3 pot bet is way too small for the OOP c-bet, 2/3 to 3/4 is the better option here,
because you want to get the money in if you hit your flush on turn or river.
Even if MP raises your bet here (if AI, an easy fold on the flop) if normal a normal raise from MP here a call.
Sets normally don't raise here, they call mostly, BDFD like KcJc, Tc9c will also call only.

Turnplay massive mistake, you don't want to get outdrawn with your nutflush hit here, so go All in,
MP makes a mistake (longterm) if he calls your AI with his set or weaker flush.
Also you want that MP has a tough decision (and you want to try to have best fold equity) on calling that AI.

You Play NL10 GTO is not the option here, exploitative play is the way.

Goggelheimer said:

One golden rule of thumb for microstakes cash game never play FPS (Fancy play syndrome),
so play your monsters and a Nutflush is a monster aggressively (no slowplay).

On the flop 1/3 pot bet is way too small for the OOP c-bet, 2/3 to 3/4 is the better option here,
because you want to get the money in if you hit your flush on turn or river.
Even if MP raises your bet here (if AI, an easy fold on the flop) if normal a normal raise from MP here a call.
Sets normally don't raise here, they call mostly, BDFD like KcJc, Tc9c will also call only.

Turnplay massive mistake, you don't want to get outdrawn with your nutflush hit here, so go All in,
MP makes a mistake (longterm) if he calls your AI with his set or weaker flush.
Also you want that MP has a tough decision (and you want to try to have best fold equity) on calling that AI.

You Play NL10 GTO is not the option here, exploitative play is the way.

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You realise a set is a boat on the turn right? How is he getting outdrawn with his nut flush he almost always has either has 100% equity or 0%.

Your comment about exploit v GTO makes no sense. As though any 10NL players can play GTO anyway!

As played i dont hate a fold on the river, it's super underbluffed.

Station_Master said:

You realise a set is a boat on the turn right? How is he getting outdrawn with his nut flush he almost always has either has 100% equity or 0%.

Your comment about exploit v GTO makes no sense. As though any 10NL players can play GTO anyway!

As played i dont hate a fold on the river, it's super underbluffed.

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Sorry sets on flop will be full houses on the turn, you are right did not read the board well.
So why did he call the raise on the turn and go to the river?
He could have saved money not calling the turn raise,
folding the monster directly on the turn if you think you have only a super strong bluff catcher.
A play that makes no sense.
If the river is underbluffed what about the turn raise?
If this is no bluff the exploit is overfolding the Nutflush on the turn raise of MP.
I don't get that play.

Goggelheimer said:

So why did he call the raise on the turn and go to the river? He could have saved money not calling the turn raise.

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This is something, which Bart Hansson from CrushlivePoker talk about in many of his free Youtube strategy videos. The idea, that if you called on the turn, and nothing changes, then you always have to call again on the river. And his answer to that is, that the river bet in itself is a change. In this hand the opponent risked $4.24 raising the turn, but of the river he risked another $10.19, after Hero called his turn raise, which in itself makes Heros hand look very strong.

So while we might suspect, we could be against a boat, when he makes such a large turn raise, we are still not quite sure and think, that maybe he could sometimes be overplaying a worse flush or trips, or maybe he could sometimes be bluffing with the naked K of clubs. However when he jam the river in a situation, where it looks like, we will probably call, we think, all these hands are now far less likely, and that we are not good 1 out of 3 times, which we need to make a profitable call.

Is it a boat or is it a bluff? Or is it a really bad nitty player extracting max value for his AA or KK because it's all low cards on the board?

Hopefully it is the latter, but we all like to think we can make a sick fold here against the full house.

puzzlefish said:

Is it a boat or is it a bluff?

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With this specific player type (14/9) in a 10NL cash game and his turn sizing, which gave him a really bad price to bluff, I would rule out bluffs almost entirely.

puzzlefish said:

Or is it a really bad nitty player extracting max value for his AA or KK because it's all low cards on the board?

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He limp-called preflop, which would be extremely unusual with AA or KK. If a 14/9 nit limp these hands, its usually with the intension of limp-reraising them. The more serious argument against folding is, if we can really be sure, that this is never a worse flush thinking, its going for value. There are only 7 realistic combos of boats, so if he could be doing this with 4 combos of worse flushes, we need to call.

I think in real time I would probably make a crying call convincing myself, he could have a hand like or

And then I would hate myself for paying off a nit (again), when he show me or

Fundiver thanks for the tip on Statsname. I hadn't heard of it before. I signed up on it.

Question, is the data there complete though? I looked myself up and it seems to be missing a lot of hands. And my win rate is quite different between the site and the BOL hand tracker I use. I started the BOL tracking in 2021 and I have 61k+ hands. The site started tracking me well before that and says I only have 42k hands. Site says I am a small loser but the handtracker says I am winning at a 19bb/100 rate, which is way too high. (I suspect perhaps it doesn't adjust for rake)

However, based on my account balance history, I am winning.

I also looked up a few IDs of regs I play against often and the results seem quite off too as far as the name vs. the handtracker.

blueskies said:

Fundiver thanks for the tip on Statsname. I hadn't heard of it before. I signed up on it. Question, is the data there complete though?

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I dont have information about that. I mainly play tournaments, so I just came about Statsname by kind of coincidence and dont use it regularly. Its entirely possible, the data could be incomplete for whatever reason.

where do we see villain's stats.?
How many hands do we have on villain? (what else can we add about villain?)

from how the hand was played, my description of this player type isn't 'bad reg' but I guess it depends on how one classifies player types.
... vs. some players I'm calling 100%... vs. others it's a fold. In a vacuum... I suppose it's a fold.

Poker Orifice said:

where do we see villain's stats.?

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In the header of the post between Table Format and Currency.