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1/2 limit HE, KQo on a suited flop
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[QUOTE="F Paulsson, post: 383308, member: 6979"] You're asking the right question! As always, "it depends." In the best possible scenario, my opponent has absolutely nothing, and a worse nothing than myself (and no spade). But let's say that he has something that I can beat with a little luck, something like J9 or ace-high. I would then need to hit either a queen or a king on the turn to have the best hand. There are 6 of those that we have not yet accounted for. Another possibility is me hitting a 10 on the turn, giving me an open-ended straight draw, which in turn would net me another 8 outs. But although there are four 10s in the deck, I cannot count these as four outs; I will only make the straight around 20% of the time when I make it. Given that I also have the possibility of getting a 9 and then a 10, or an ace and then a 10, these possibilities together sum up to about a 3% chance of getting a runner-runner straight (I can show you the calculations if you want). A 3% chance is roughly the same as 1.5 outs, so let's assign that value to the straight. My best case scenario, if I'm currently behind, is that I have 7.5 outs on this flop to win. With this way of counting, I have more than enough outs to peel a card on the flop. But what if my opponent has a spade? Uh-oh. Suddenly, the queen of spades and the king of spades are no longer outs. Also, the 10 of spades, the 9 of spades and the ace of spades are no longer available for making my runner-runner straight, bringing the straight potential down to about 1.5% (or less than one complete out). This brings me to below 5 outs - but even then, my decision is actually close! I have 9.5-to-1 to call, and my outs seemingly give me odds for it. This is a highly risky play, no doubt about it. What finally made the difference between calling and folding when he bet was only that he would bet with anything at this point - and that I was absolutely certain that I could smack him with a checkraise if I hit a non-spade queen or a king on the turn - a checkraise that he would call with any pair, any draw and ace-high. My real problem is if I'm drawing dead on the flop (if he has two spades). How often will that happen, and how much should that affect my decision? /FP PS. I'm also in big trouble if my opponent has a hand like QJ or KJ, because then I've just lost almost half of my outs. I'm still far from convinced that my decision to play this flop was +EV (and I'm leaning more and more towards a fold should I happen in a similar situation again) but I think it's decently close - maybe only losing a few cents. [/QUOTE]
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1/2 limit HE, KQo on a suited flop
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